Post by
retiredengexec on Nov 09, 2020 10:31am
Green Good Oil Bad - Not so Fast
I'll tackle this in two posts. Social media says it so it must be true. Fiddy although I hope his tongue is in his cheek days it too. That said billionaires like Bezos have reportedly committed to spending trillions. Saying you will spend money however is not putting shovels in the ground. The green conversion will take place but it will take place incrementally and slowly constrained by physics, supply chains, population density, physical distance, weather, contractual arrangements and maybe just maybe economics. It will be complicated with many variables beyond my well used old brain. I dont think governments are equipped to execute a plan. What they call a plan is goal. Us engineers call a plan a detailed step by blueprint with objectives costs and resources. I digress. Let's look at EV's. There are 7 million (out of 1.4 billion) as of 2019 when 2.1 million were sold, a 40 % increase from 2018. Heres where the supply chain comes in. Each EV requires about 27 lbs of lithium carbonate. Current lithium carbonate production is 95,000 tonnes per annum. At 8 million EV,s per annum consumption is 95,000 tonnes per annum. Now of course production will increase with projects in Nevada (tsx: LAC) and a Spudomene mine in Quebec but at some point supply shortages will occur and prices will sky rocket. Bottomline it will take decades if ever to replace the ICE. I'll deal with the other constraint electricity momentarily.
Comment by
Abouttime1 on Nov 09, 2020 10:57am
Not so fast indeed. Check out the environmental concerns with how lithium is obtained, plus disposal issues. https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/lithium-ion-battery-environmental-impact/
Comment by
Fantome on Nov 09, 2020 11:02am
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