RE:Will the ex dividend date on ENB be neutral.bbzzzz: My ENS NAV calculation model takes the daily change in the price of ENB and multiplies by 0.44. When ENB goes ex-divi (today), the model adds back in the $0.915 to the real change in the ENB share price before multiplying by 0.44. The 0.44 factor is determined by each ENS Unit owning 0.44 ENB shares.
So, your thought process is correct. Since ENB was down NET $0.31 today after accounting for the $0.915 divi, the NAV for ENS was down $0.14 to $9.97. The Premium to the NAV increased to 13.44% because the ENS share price only dropped $0.05 vs the NAV dropping $0.14
As of today, I suspect that the 13.44% Premiujm to the NAV is "safe" from the threat of a Raise unless Middlefield pulls another "quickie" like it did in December. "Quickie" is an inappropriate term for describing what happened during the last Raise. Typically, the costs of each Raise are plus or minus 6.6% on the money raised to the ENS Common shareholders as the Pref shareholders don't take a hit. For the last Raise, the "cost" number ended up being 5.2% which is what caught me off guard.
Either one of two things happened in December. One possibility was that the costs of the deal have dropped (down to 5.2%) because of the new ATM (At The Market) Prospectus that got filed which means the legal fees should drop by a big chunk. The other possibility was that Middlefield cut a deal with the investment brokers for the last deal a few days in advance (which is normal) and by the time the dealers got back to Middlefied with the size of the deal that they could put away with their customers, the market had moved away. So, what ended up happening is that the deal appeared to get done at 5.2% costs but the real answer is that the investment broker customers got jammed for the difference. At the time, I noticed that the published NAV for ENS for Friday Dec 1 which appeared on Monday morning Dec 4th was "off" by $0.03. My "expected" NAV is almost always dead on or at the very worst off by $0.01 because of a rounding error. The abboration was surprising and had me checking my model. The model was fine and lo and behold, the Raise gets announced later on that same day. Make of that what you will. All I know is that going forward, if my NAV calculation is "off" it will serve as a WARNING.
The reason that I track the Premium to the NAV on a daily basis is that it gives an indication of when I can expect a Raise. Based upon the Premium numbers, it appears that Middlefield reaches out to the street to set the price of a Raise a few days before it actually takes place. The reason is that it takes a few days for the investment dealers to get back to Middlefield with a $ amount of the Raise. It would be naive to think that every time Middlefield announces a Raise at the close of a trading day, by some miracle, they announce the successful placement of $40 million to $60 million overnight the following morning. By overnight, I mean in an hour or two after the market closes.
The reason that I have been warning about the possibility of a Raise the last few days was that I didn't know whether the cost of doing a deal had actually dropped to 5.2% for the last deal or whether the market simply moved away from the strike price for the last deal which meant the buyers of the last deal got screwwed. Now we know.