Post by
Obscure1 on Nov 08, 2023 11:37pm
Expected NAV $10.31 : Premium 13%
An IR rep for a Split fund this week indicated that the demand for the Common share portion of Split units has been slow.
That makes sense as "risk off" investments have been paying much higher interest this year.
The consensus seems to be that interest rates will likely be flat for the next couple of quarters which will hopefully lead to rates easing off slowing starting as soon as Q2.
The trick to higher returns will be to time buying before the market decides to take off again on the expectation of lower rates.
I really like ENS at the current share price for three reasons. The first is that I'm more than happy to collect 13.3% monthly while I wait for lower rates. The second and less obvious reason is that ENB is bringing $6 billion worth of projects on board in 2024 and another $17 billion in 2025. Those projects are currently eating up CAPEX and reducing earnings because of the cost of debt When the assets move into service, the cash flow takes off. The third reason is that ENB will be closing the $19 billion acquistion of Dominion in 2024 for which ENB has already raised $4,6 billion of equity by issuing 13 million new shares. Right now, those 13 million shares are acting as a drag on earnings which I think is the primary reason that the ENB share price dropped and is taking its sweet time to recover. ENB now anticipates an 8% return on capital for the acquisition. I'm not sure the acquisition is the "deal of a generation" as the company suggests in its investor deck, but the math works. The long lead time for the deal to be completed should allow ENB time to handle the transfer of ownership with a minimum of collateral damage in terms of the cost of layoffs.
So, I see two tailwinds going forward for ENB which should make investors happy. The first is an improving interest rate scenario which raises all ships, particularly for interest rate sensitive companies like ENB. The second tailwind is the massive incoming cash flows expected to come onstream over the next two years as all he work and money ENB has built into growth will finally begin to pay off.
Sorry for the long diatribe but if it helps even one person learn a bit more about ENS, then the effort was worth it.