In the News Pentwater's silence likely explained by the release of a preliminary ruling by a judge in NY that the Class action against Rio Tinto commenced by Pentwater in behalf of TRQ minority shareholders may proceed. The basis is misrepresentation in their continual disclosure obligations concerning delays and cost overruns in the mine plan.
So, in addition to the arrival of the new Rio Chairman Dominic Barton, (my theory new management is always more willing to spend settlement money to clean up problems created by prior regimes - the Board and investors can't blame them for creating the liability and they don't want to be hamstrung by the problems left behind), this is another reason to up the bid and settle both lawsuit and bid in one go.
Pentwater could throw in a release of claims and settlement of the action conditional on an agreed bid price and completion of the bid. If Pentwater approves the deal most of the minority is likely to follow.
Which perhaps shows the wisdom in initiating the arbitration by ETG, just as TRQ started actions to challenge Mongolian taxes, to challenge Rio Tinto on financing, Pentwater the Class action to move Rio Tinto along ... they sometimes need to be spurred into action by regulators, Courts, arbitrators who aren't impressed with their domineering attitudes.
Everything we have seen this year - the change at the top at Rio Tinto, Mr. Bold put in charge of the copper division, the settlement with a Mongolia and release of $2.4 billion of their buy-in cost to OTLLC, the commencement of the ETG Earn-In arbitration, the undercut commencement, the two bids, the SSL a movement of their ETG into Horizon,the recommencement of drilling on HNE, all suggest to me Rio is intent on fully privatizing OT before sustainable production reveals the profitability of Lift 1 underground and they can they shift gears and accelerate expansion of production by commencing Heruga or Lift 2, or create a new HNE mine plan, or make discoveries on the JV ... without full public disclosure obligations through TRQ.
And the assurance part ... even if there are delays and the bid hangs fire ... the very reasons Rio wants to bid out TRQ (and I say ETG) are the same reasons it would be profitable to remain in OT in any event - the NSRks from HNE are going to be very good.
cg