AFFO vs share price Share price has tracked changes to forward AFFO estimates pretty closely,
in spring of 2022, AFFO est for 2024 was $0.78. That fell by 35 percent and bottomed at $0.50 in spring 2023.
In spring of 2022, the share price reached a high of $7.95 and subsequently followed the estimate changes down , finally bottoming at $5.79, a fall of 27 percent.
since mid 2023, AFFO estimates for 2024 have risen from $0.50 to $0.62, a rise of 24 percent.
The share price has followed along, rising 19 percent to its recent $6.88.
If Home Health Care margins can reach the low double digits in 2024 and LTC rates see a bump from the budget and overall margin leverage rises due to high occupancy, getting AFFO back to the $0.70 range isn't unreasonable . That would be a 13 percent lift. If the share price holds its historical correlation with AFFO direction, suggests $7.75 as a fair target.
exactly where the share price reached in July 2023 but at the time wasn't supported by positive AFFO revisions, so it retraced.
that would mean a total return (cap gain and dividend) of ~21 percent from current levels.
GLTA