Analysts 2013
For vets you can skip this, old news.
A mass amount of various analysts remarks can be found on the Energy Report. Clicking on more comments they go back to May.
Here
https://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/co/6042#quote
This also the most lengthy research report from earlier this year.
July 2
nd – Research Report,
David Sadowski, Parry Pasricha, Ramond James. 79 pages in length.
Full report available here https://www.andrewjohns.ca/sites/default/files/news-files/iMin062613rpt_225513%20%281%29.pdf- I do recommend reading this report for new investors even though it is a bit old, it can give investors a lot of information if you are not familiar with this deposit and considering taking a position. Raymond James is definitely in blackout currently or Restricted status as confirmed by them in several documents.
Highlights - Page 19 on open pit remarks. Page 20 and in-situ values, comments on the other elements in the source material. Page 26 common elements with Rabbit Lake deposit. Page 29 – Grade depth chart of all significant deposits. Page 31 Valuation chart. Page 43 – Alpha’s other assets for spinco. Page 59 – Fission spinco assets. (outdated and should be altered in next report)
Here is the summary of the report.
Patterson Lake South - Nothing Else Like it
In just eight short months, Patterson Lake South (PLS) has evolved from an ‘interesting prospect’ to one of the most exciting uranium projects in the world. Although it is still early days, we believe PLS could become the centerpiece of a world class, longlived production center in the western Athabasca Basin on its rare combination of open-pittable depths, high grades, and size potential. PLS is jointly-owned by Alpha Minerals Inc. and Fission Uranium Corp. and with this report, we are launching research coverage on both companies.
w
Serious Grades and Size Potential. Based on drilling to date, we estimate 19 Mlbs grading 2.3% U3O8 has been defined within two of three identified zones – an impressive feat with only one field season completed since discovery. For reference, at RJL long-term price forecasts, this grade would equate to an in-situ rock value of US$3,080/t or on a goldequivalent basis, 80 g/t. Given the intensity and extent of alteration, structure, and mineralization; a drilling ‘hit rate’ over 80%; numerous compelling geophysical targets; and world class analogies on the east side of the Basin, we view exploration upside as excellent: our notional target resource is 60 Mlbs. In the longer-term, we believe potential is north of 100 Mlbs.
w
Rare Open-Pittable Depths. The majority of pounds are within 100 m of surface – likely well above the depth threshold for economic open pits. The scarcity of such a shallow project cannot be overstated; with the lowest-hanging fruit already plucked, PLS is arguably the only high-grade (>1%), open-pittable uranium asset left unmined in the world. Further, uranium is hosted in clean, competent, water-resisting basement rocks, implying easier mining, processing, and waste management.
w
Top Jurisdiction. We view the Athabasca Basin as the world’s premier jurisdiction for uranium mining, with supportive policies, geopolitical stability, an experienced workforce and infrastructure – three mills are operating and 2012 production was 23.4 Mlbs (15% of world). While PLS is likely to need a new mill given its west Basin location, we believe requisite capex could be justified as regional resource pounds quickly approach critical mass (i.e., augmented by Shea Creek, Centennial).
w
Potential Suitors and Valuation. The consolidation flurry continues, with six large deals in the last 12 months further reducing the availability of ‘good’ pounds, and in light of PLS’ quality and scarcity, it is very likely that the majors – e.g., Areva, Cameco, nuclear utilities in Asia – are watching the project closely. We value PLS using the dollar-per-pound method and ascribe US$7/lb to our notional 60 Mlbs target for US$420 mln in project value. Our metric reflects recent high-grade takeouts (Roughrider US$10/lb; Waterbury US$9/lb; and Millennium US$8/lb) and peer trading valuations, adjusted for grade, depth, location, etc.
w
Potential Catalysts. We expect continued steady news flow from PLS over the remainder of the year. Key milestones include start-up of the ~C$7 mln summer drill program in early-July, initial scintillometer results by mid-July (and continuing throughout the program), with initial assays by mid/late-August. We expect a maiden resource estimate in mid-2014. We are initiating coverage on the two companies that share ownership of the PLS project:
Alpha Minerals Inc. (AMW-TSXV) – Outperform, $7.80 target – Alpha is run by Ben Ainsworth (President, CEO) and Mike Gunning (Chairman), both instrumental in the development and sale of Hathor Exploration Ltd. and its 57.9 Mlbs Roughrider to Rio Tinto for C$654 mln last year. We estimate current cash at C$18.0 mln (C$32.5 mln, fully-diluted).
Fission Uranium Corp. (FCU-TSXV) – Outperform, $1.40 target – Fission is led by Dev Randhawa (Chairman, CEO) and Ross McElroy (COO), the team responsible for discovering, developing, and selling Fission Energy Corp. and its 13.0 Mlbs Waterbury Lake to Denison Mines in April 2013. We estimate current cash at C$16.0 mln (C$26.5 mln, fully-diluted).