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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Frontera Energy Corp T.FEC

Alternate Symbol(s):  FECCF

Frontera Energy Corporation is a Canada-based oil and gas company. The Company is involved in the exploration, development, production, transportation, storage, and sale of oil and natural gas in South America, including related investments in both upstream and midstream facilities. The Company has a diversified portfolio of assets with interests in 27 exploration and production blocks in... see more

TSX:FEC - Post Discussion

Frontera Energy Corp > One and Done on a duster?
View:
Post by kcac1 on Jan 23, 2023 9:21am

One and Done on a duster?

"Any future drilling is contingent on positive results at Wei-1 and the Joint Venture has no further drilling obligations beyond the Wei-1 well."

This stood out to me in the press release.

I bet that OYL shares move much higher %-wise than FEC shares on drill news, even with FEC controlling approx 92% of the concession between owning about 78% of OYL's shares and the 68% of the concession. 

If the well is a gusher, both should do well, if the well is a duster, OYL would seem pretty well F'd and I would think drop as much as 80% or more They have no money and no way of making money and FEC controls everything. There seems such little value and disconnet given FEC's very strong positon on this well and why most all of the longs felel the stock is stongly undervalued. If a duster, FEC shares may only drop 20%.  And for sure the cash flow from Colombia and increasing from Equador plus their midstream investments in the pipelines and the port will keep FEC a viable company that will have to decide what to do with OYL and or the concession.

I own a fair number of OYL shares thinking I would hold until the end but the last two wells drilled by this rig have not gone well. 

Sporty and others what are your thoughts on what happens next to near term share price and what happens if Wei is a duster?  We will see in about 15 mins if the markets are paying much attention to this well and to which company gets the most attention, if either.
Comment by Frank007 on Jan 23, 2023 9:58am
Duster...lol...obviously you have not seem the oil and condensate from the kawa well....they are being conservative   With the news feed ....they can pick up more cheap shares that way and never get cornered ......wei 1 well  will be a winner.   As soon as the rig hits the first target ..you can bet they will do a core sample ....and on each  target as well....they are not ...more  
Comment by Kelvin on Jan 23, 2023 10:17am
Frank, I think that they might have something in the Tertiary above their targets in the Cretaceous. The reason I think that is because on Kawa they announced the RO at $1.63 even before penetrating the Cretaceous and their Campanian and Santonian targets knowing that they had to come up with the cash to backstop the RO if there were few takers. Why didn't they announce the RO at spud? They ...more  
Comment by Frank007 on Jan 23, 2023 10:30am
Price action...you can already see cibc.   Bmo...and  anonymous ...wash trading this this morning ...this is standard  shake and bake ...I have to admit I was a little peeed off that potion were made available ..even though I have picked some up ....the options market give the crooked market manipulating shake and bake banisters an out when they short a stock ...they pick the time ...more  
Comment by Kelvin on Jan 23, 2023 10:56am
Frank, So would you hedge cgx downside risk with long fec? I'm inclined to do so. Just started to track this stuff. Is it reasonable to say that if call interest is higher than short interest then, on average, the consensus is for sp increase?  Anyway, I have no idea of what happens to cgx. That depends totally on what fec's longer term plans are. I'm leaning towards sustained ...more  
Comment by Frank007 on Jan 23, 2023 11:23am
Hedge manipulation ...just look out at the sept and dec  out of the money call options ......the can naked short the shares ..to shake you out of your positions ....there is no div to cover so it's just the interest on the borrowed stock ....shorting the shares daily gives the impression its a bad stock ....any time you put in an order it wil be filled and the stock will immediately be ...more  
Comment by Kelvin on Jan 23, 2023 2:02pm
Frank, Yeah that happens when there is little bid interest. Where's the bid interest? 
Comment by Kelvin on Jan 23, 2023 10:02am
kcal1, Fec is on the TMX Montreal options exchange. You could track the call and put action to get an idea of how traders are feeling about future performance. If you think that they'll TD the well by, say, June then focus in on June options. Build yourself a spread sheet to identify trends.Try and correlate it with other factors like well depth, oil price, fec financials etc but you'll ...more  
Comment by SportyJ on Jan 23, 2023 10:41am
Kcac, no worries at all about the language about no more drlg requirements. That's all about the JV meeting it's corentyne block obligation with guyana. It's positive as is the filing of an appraisal program. As for the mkt reacting to the sp in the near term; well my crystal ball isn't that clear. As for the 6-12 mo term we go higher. I previously thought Cgx would be "done ...more  
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