Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

Market Share Angle

[johnale]

Fire did 5.75mil through Jan/feb/March where rec revenues were 480 during that period. 

-.73% flower sales is 350mil. 
supremes proportion of those revenues on 4 flower strains and one sugar leaf pre roll was 1.64% 

With:
- humble and fume actively expanding market share/penetration and hitting sales targets
- 4 craft strains in major markets released 
- 4 new whole flower pre rolls released across country
- blissco expanding prerolls to Alberta and Ontario 
- quebec adding haze flower and 2 pre rolls 
(all new flower skus added across the country) 

how much was fire able to increase their market share? 
being a top 9 searched brand in Ontario definitely counts for something. 

lets say a tiny 1.26%
market expanded to 180mil April - let's say it remains flat May/June. 

3% of 540mil * 73%(flower only) = 11.826mil. 

Vape/cbd/thc market is .14% of that = 75.6mil 
We captured 1mil? 1.5? 

Wholesale - 3mil? 

so I think we are right there this quarter with a solid 15mil + hopefully.

[maritimedreamer]

Man o Man... the analysis you provide us..... you sir are awesome! Of course it is all hypotehtical and i enjoy how you like to try to stay on the conservative side of things. I suspect cannabis sales will probably be slightly increasing each month just with how trends have been maintained monthly.... we know the demand is certainly there as retial opens.... there were a good number of stores

[Dunworkin2]

John, a couple comments. First, did you work your projections like you are doing now for the last quarter? What were your results, how close were you? The reason I ask is not to be a smart azz, but what I could see benefitting all readers here is to adjust your final number by the variance between what your packaged date revenue numbers look like compared to the real numbers when release by

[brentkosta]

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[Buggered123]

[johnale]

So last quarter I didn't have very many data points.  I used haze as a proxy for the whole quarter which increased pack relative to purchase date by .33% over a 3month period.  We had 26% increase in sales volume - (incld new pre roll) so say off by 10%.  sell through has been even for 3.5/7g (from November to February) but packaging rate from nov to Jan 31 quadroupled

[Dunworkin2]

That's my point, you don't need to know, just keep doing your analysus but add in "variance" factor for how much you were off and over time, it may get closer to the real number.  All in fun, your number could become an interesting compare to when Supreme does start providing forecasts again.  cheers. quote=johnale] So last quarter I didn't have very

[OptGreen]

Thanks joh always a pleasure and informative and ~$15mil is still close to a 50% increase Q over Q with most all of the product being moved in the last half of the quarter....current quarter will see the full quarter production or closer to it and product shelved ramping up weekly. No one can fault your effort or your conclusions/assumptions as they are based on very thin moving targets that are

[nearnorth101]

The future looks bright we gotta wear shades!

[BCmountainman]

Yeah really bright lol