Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

Expectations for Earnings

[StayInvested]

Hey all, long time accredited retail investor (20 plus years), just here to give my opinion on Supreme Cannabis. 

I think a lot of you are expecting Q4 to be in the 8-10mil range, which would be nice. However, I expect earnings to fall in the 7-8mil range this quarter due to fair value adjustments on biological assets and re-pricing of current inventory. 

I am excited to see someone of Beena's calibre running this company now, instead of some clowns with no idea how to read a market. The financings and debentures seem to be less of an issue now as a going concern. Seeing the lenders agree to lifting the restricted cash covenant is always a bonus. 

Supreme seems to have added quite a few SKUs as of late, and they all seem to be relatively popular amongst users. Value add products like their Craft Collective (which is just rebranded 3rd party (or related party) cannabis) and their derivatives seem to be selling out often. Jack Haze (proprietary phenotype) is astounding, and easily one of the best "designer" cultivars on the market. 

I think at this current share price level, there isn't much risk going forward. For all of you long term holders that haven't averaged down, it could be a long haul. As some of the bears have stated, the current share structure isn't the best for an appreciation of the share price. 

Q1 of the 2021 year will be the earnings release most are waiting for. It will be the first full quarter of the restructure, less covid related hiccups, and a full line of SKUs with their production timing corrected.

Hard to not buy this LP at these prices.

[Munny23]

Very good summary. Good luck!

[watchmeplz]

In my opinion, at these prices? Like it's cheap? Lmao. There's LPs with no debt, no capital structure problems with 2m market cap, yet this is cheap? For what? The apparently expected 7-8m quarter, that doesn't even close to justify the sp?  If your so seasoned why would that make sense to you?   

[StayInvested]

Hey watchmeplz, not sure why you have so much emotion in your post.  Would you mind showing me said LPs? In terms of the 20 or so visible LPs in the Canadian market, they all have awkward share structures (Aphria aside), debt, and low to negative net margins. This is a new industry that is still trying to find traction. Supreme is attractive because of their focus (now at least) on strictly

[theTransporter]

You seem to be mixing revnues vs. earnings. The $8M to $10M range are expected revenues.  You're arguing it could be lower due to fair value adjustments and re-pricing of inventory.  Those do not impact revenue but rather profits. Whether you adjust assets or re-price inventory, it doesn't change total revenue generated.  

[StayInvested]

Re-pricing inventory that sold through would most definitely have an effect on earnings and revenue. 

[George141]

...the main thing here is moving the product. Once it becomes a favourite the price can be adjusted based on availability and demand. The consumer is allways right...after all he/she is the one that cracks open the wallet and lays their hard earned cash on the table. Quality allways wins..check out a bottle of cogniac named Haig..it is so pricey some liquor stores don't even carry it. However

[JaCkSnap]

I would agree to that, their product has always been top-tier.  When consumers stop experiementing with the barage of new product many will develop Loyalty to the good growers and in-turn, buy well-priced superior smoke that 7ac consistently offer.