Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

Questions to ask

[shooter300]

should we sell your shares before financial results.

[StayInvested]

That depends on your cost base Shooter. If anything, to mitigate risk, you could always sell (if profiting) a portion of your holdings to help cover an sell-off that occurs post earnings. That is if you are trading this and not an investor.

[shooter300]

Thanks.sold my ACB with lost yest and i may sell half of my FIRE today.

[Munny23]

Acb actually had a decrease in revenue while the market sales were up. Meaning, good chance fire has taken some of that market share. We all know there products have been selling out fast on the ocs.  i think we will be surprised, I'm buying this and holding.  Glta.

[Method]

While I'm sure most people factor it in, cost base shouldn't be a factor in your decisions. What's the business worth and what's it trading are more important.  

[puppymonkeybaby]

I have to ask myself. What is a company worth that does about $30-$40m in sales a year, has a negative gross margin and a pile of debt, next to no cash, zero intellectual property. Not to mention an ugly share structure in an over regulated industry where the government is the middleman. This company isnt worth half of the current market cap. There is no reason to invest in LP's. Its a fools

[StayInvested]

Hey Method, I do agree with the primary points of valuing a company. However, if we are talking a risk mitigation strategy prior to an earnings release, cost base is an important factor. As I stated, if trading, cost base is generally the alpha. If investing, than what you stated is true.

[johnale]

Thanks for your information/take. I've adjusted my expectations - and maybe I should again. Supreme did lower prices into q1 across Canada -  700k was the future adjustment in q3 which is a 12.3% reduction in price relative to the entire 5.7 in rec sales.  i calculated another 6-10% decline in price across the board - in The rec market - into q1.  I thought that 700k

[StayInvested]

Just basing it on their previous Q/Q growth in recreational revenues, while discounting any wholesale, as I don't think there is much significance in wholesale for them anymore. I don't see a lot of revenue creating catalysts for them in Q4. Most of the SKUs came online in the later half of the quarter, and I think Q1 will be significantly more telling in terms of their success.

[johnale]

Have you seen the restock list? I kept a carefull day by day look at out of stock and re-stock in q4. It is accurate - other than I may have missed the odd out of stock here and there.    Large re-stock march 28/29 OCS - prov closes retail and all SKU's sold out OCS April 4th.  April 5 - 3.5g Haze added to quebec April 12th - 1:5 CBD oil added to BC April 17th - sensi

[johnale]

I dunno.... I've confirmed with ir that wholesale channels were still open... so your information isn't congruent with mine.  PI financial has us at 41mil for fy2020 - so 11mil this q.  price drop on inventory sold is reflective of only inventory that was in the hands of provinces. They only hold 40-50% ... craft collective prices weren't dropped - sold thru - pre rolls

[StayInvested]

You bring up valid points, however PI financial isn't exactly an institution that I would put much weight in.  Pre roll pricing was dropped for SugarLeaf. I can't remember the exact figures, but they were.  KKE remaining inventory was drastically reduced. Blissco I can't speak towards, they haven't had enough of an impact thus far so I think inclusion is neglible. 

[WealthBuilder99]

You're referring to the recent 15% drop on 7Acres flower, yes? This only happened about a month ago, over halfway through Q1. The effect on Q4 shouldn't be too significant, at least in provinces such as Ontario whom were selling out frequently (thus most of the inventory was likely sold through prior to price drop). One more point to mention, typically retail has roughly 100% markup on

[johnale]

And just to be clear - 40-50% of any quarterly sales is held by provinces at any one time,  maybe less now as sell through is 1-2minths.  so the price drop is on half of what the province is holding - call it even 10mil (which is unlikely)  5mil - at 7% (accounting for provincial mark up)    is 350k..... so I don't think I'm understating it. Especially

[johnale]

10mil in q sales - where provinces were holding about 5mil of that inventory at the time of the price drop - 10-15%  of which... 7% would affect supreme. 350k 

[GoldenEra]

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[ABDPhil]

Waraba is an empty shell. Final closure imminent. Dear Goldenera, you should have been more careful.

[GoldenEra]

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