RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Enjoy the trip South I have been very clear that I don't understand the equity valuation but if the market is willing to pay it then perhaps it can be converted into cash to pay off converts. See TSLA.
When you are buying bonds that trade at 27 cents on the dollar, it's clear the risk is super high. I am prepared to lose 1 to make 4. I don't think the equity investors realize the risk they are taking (higher than debt) which is why I ask for their analysis. They don't provide any so I can't comment on it.
I have only encouraged equity investors to switch into the debt which I think is prudent if you plan on holding equity for a long time which some of the equity guys on this board claim they have and will continue to do. Others are traders looking to make short term money from the long side. I wish them luck. The ATM needs volume.
I ask you for your short analysis too and you don't provide anything tangible. You don’t account for the potential sale of the company to a strategic buyer in the industry like APHA (with the related CEO). A strategic buyer could remove a significant amount of costs associated with management and back office. How does that change where revenue breakeven is? What does that imply about intrinsic value?
You also don’t account for a CPG/tobacco/alcohol company buying a relatively cheap option to scale Supreme. Both of those outcomes could be positive for the debentures. They could also start operating better under Beena like most of the equity bulls here believe. That might happen too. Narrative is powerful and they might be able to raise money at higher valuations if that starts to happen.
At one point I asked you what you thought FIRE was worth and you said 15 cents/share which means the FIRE.DB is money good. Now you are betting I will lose all my money, then short the bonds too, let’s meet in the machine. Be warned the carry is high.
brentkosta wrote: Method, it seems that you have some general knowledge of the markets. But where its clear to me is that you arent promoting yourself as trust worthy when you clearly see this company as a pig... yet you lead people to believe buying bonds is a prudent investment choice. Friendly bet you lose all of your money is you hold those debs. I think you know it deep down inside. But you, like many, are affected by hold emotions. Holding an asset makes one believe the asset has more value than it does.
Youd gain a lot of credibility if you were upfront and honest about your opinion on the overall quality of this company. With your financial background, its fair to say you have a clue. You dont know as much as Opt or Vulcan, but youre close.