Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

crazy

[vulcan123456789]

crazy how this is being held in place.. total manipulation.. may be some but cant see retail constantly selling .... powers to be holding it in place.. anybody have ideas when this may stop.. what the end game is for them... cheers

[backhoegypsy]

New management, same market manipulators in my opinion.

[541house]

Vulcan you dont think it's the shorting in and out?

[vulcan123456789]

could be but if its just shorting why not take it down lower.. theres accumulation going on and they are quite comfortable to accumulate in .29 to .30 range.. they know its worth a lot more.. someone is looking to make a bundle on shares in this range cheers

[StayInvested]

If you are all wondering what is happening, 2:53 into the video. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/james-hodgins-discusses-supreme-cannabis~1670913 James explains somewhat what happens with these plays.  They buy debt + short. Make it on both ends for as long as possible. With the inclusion of ETFs, this has become all the easier (cheaper interest rates).  This will trade sideways

[Aurum1983]

StayInvested - if it is just a straight convertible hedge with nothing nefarious then they won't be affecting the share price. I.e. they short the conversion amount, and ride the $36.5M deb to maturity and just collect the 11%. In this simple scenario they are just like a regular lender and won't affect anything. I am saying as the SP gets higher and further from .285, at some point they

[StayInvested]

Yea but the longer they ride it out the lower their blended cost is.

[Aurum1983]

StayInvested, what I am trying to say is you are right that they box it (long via convertible and short the stock) to collect interest regardless of price movement. But I take issue when you say: "This will trade sideways for quite some time I fear. This recent increase in SP is due to the ETF inclusion as well, so its a double edged sword." It's not true if it is the

[StayInvested]

Hedges are dynamic and not static. Plenty changed since the original debentures, and I would encourage you to look at MMCap filings in regards to equity ownership/liquidation. Also, look at exclusions/inclusions from ETFs, as well as overall short positions.  I would agree with your thesis if hedging was static, which it is not. 

[Aurum1983]

Since you called me out on simple math and pointed to a few things, I'll add that the shorts would have to pay borrowing fee probably still north of 30% for a stock like FIRE. I still don't think they want to properly hedge this and hold till maturity. No point in continuing to stipulate here, wait a few q's and we will see.

[LiLy2021]

  I know for a fact that shorters of dividend-paying stocks have to pay dividends plus a percentage fee to the broker from whom they borrow the shares. But, holy cow! Shorting a penny stock that has no way to go but up and paying a 30% borrowing fee?  How true when Einstein once  said: "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity and I'm not so sure about

[brentkostaa]

This self proclaimed expert is only now seeing what I've been saying all along. 

[StayInvested]

Self proclaimed? Where? Also, I've known about the hedge forever, I posted that video for others.  I never disputed you on that. Not sure what this nudge is for. You seem to have some latent aggression. 

[brentkostaa]

I have zero aggression. Thats probably you projecting. The first time you came to this board you made it very clear how "experienced you were" and then challenged the exact premise that you are now stating. 

[StayInvested]

I am experienced, how does that equate to a self proclaimation as an expert? I never challenged a convertible hedge, I think I challenged your idea about how it was going bankrupt/tank. You seem hung up on something though, not sure what.

[ridingrockets]

My guess is your comments have an ability to calm some peoples nerves. Look what is going on with the stock and if you were a newbie or the likes penny stocks can be daunting. Reading your comments can give some people insight as to what is happening with the SP and share movement. Keep it up, I would take being challenged by a short as a compliment!

[LiLy2021]

I've seen days like these too many times with Tweed. If I'm at all affected by what the shorts are saying, then it means I've learnt nothing from my mistake with Tweed.  The road to investing is bumpy, just like any road we take in life. When Tweed was $1.45/share, nobody wanted it. It only cost $3,000 for 2,000 shares. Two years later, you need to shell out $140,000 to own the

[Phonse47]

You are so refreshing Lily. Your comments simply ring true. Having done much of my own due diligence , I completely agree. I am from BC and had the pleasure of touring Blissco as part of my DD. Thanks for sharing your TWEED history and the important lessons you learned. 

[StayInvested]

From the same first post I made that you seem to be focused on; "I think at this current share price level, there isn't much risk going forward. For all of you long term holders that haven't averaged down, it could be a long haul. As some of the bears have stated, the current share structure isn't the best for an appreciation of the share price. " 

[LiLy2021]

  Brentkostaa, After reading all your comments here, it's without a doubt that you hate this stock, this company and everything about it. It's also safe to assume that you have no position in this stock. If that's the case, then why are you here and why are you following this stock's every move. If something or someone disgusts me so much, the last thing I want to do is

[brentkostaa]

I hate nothing. I see the stock as the dog that it is. Dogs can be traded and I trade this often. Does that offend you? Have I been wrong on this stock do date? Put your ego aside and listen to people who know more than you. Or ignore it and continue holding bags. 

[ridingrockets]

bags of gold in the making!

[ridingrockets]

hehe; awesome!

[theTransporter]

To do this as long as they possibly can.  MMcap doesn't want their debentures to be forced converted so the longer they discourage investors, the better.  Sad part is they are succeeding in this. Gone is the big buying we saw a few weeks ago.

[ridingrockets]

We need more retail investors to take a dip back into cannabis. It is why I believe without any real news coming from Supreme it will likely be the next quarterlys that finally start to move this stock. Multiple successive increased quarterly retail sales should do it... I have mentioned previously that I know people who won't invest in cannabis until there is more clarity and firmer numbers

[Aurum1983]

Seriously, will you guys just have a more patience. We are up 100% YTD. Tagging the MA20, after the golden cross two weeks ago. The barcoding is clearly means we have big players rebalancing their positions. Also funds will do their rebalance second week of March. MM has blended price per share of .41 (0.54 pps for reduction of deb from $100M + the conversion price of .285 for the remaining $36

[StayInvested]

Why are they better off to convert and sell? Your simple math there doesn't fully appreciate how much they are actually benefitting.  First, that is a recurring rate annually. Meaning they are making 11.06% per annum, not 1 time. That rate is paid via shares, valued at $0.285, at a rate of 3508 shares per debenture unit ($1000). So, if they owned 26 million of the remaining debt, they

[WealthBuilder99]

Hi StayInvested, appreciate your input on this board. I just wanted to correct you on one point to help further this discussion. The 11.06% rate is not paid via shares, it is paid via a second series of non-tradeable debentures which do not bear cash interest or convert into shares, so their blended cost would not decrease as you stated through additional shares, but obviously still get the

[WealthBuilder99]

My question is, if MMCap is holding debs plus roughly 50mm shares, it would not make sense for them to have a hedge in place via shorting, correct? Wouldn't being long 1 share and short 1 share just wash out. Therefore wouldn't it make sense for them to dispose of their long position first before putting a short hedge in place?

[Aurum1983]

Thanks for correcting the both of us. I agree that they would have to dispose of their long position, and again, not at a loss, hence my napkin math estimating it to be around .41 blended pps, which admittedly, is probably lower. I (and Johnale too I think) believe MM already sold them when sp was up - there was plenty of volume for them to do so.  I don't know how some of you are able

[StayInvested]

Hey thanks for pointing that out! You're correct, when I read the amendment I must have been confused. You are correct on all counts. That being said, they are still getting a fat interest rate, that if you consider the value of the debt as a whole, is very attractive. There is almost nowhere else you can get rates like that.  As for why would the "short" if they were long

[johnale]

i think your on the money here with regards to MM strategy. At some point, it should stop affecting the stock -   as for Beenas "headwind comment" - I asked Craig from IR for clarification/insight. He said she just didn't want people expecting 55% q over q growth, and she was trying to temper expectations. But he said he expects growth.  remember - we had ~ 3mil sept

[StayInvested]

I agree with your assessment of the revs. To be honest, I'm super conservative in my estimates (as you have seen), but any growth Q-Q would be welcome given her conservative guidance. Managed expectations are easier to blow by. 

[ridingrockets]

this is a snippet from an August article... While Supreme continues to see a “strong market” for its premium 7ACRES products, CEO Beena Goldenburg says there’s a tremendous consumer response to more affordable cannabis offerings. In July, $6 per gram accounted for approximately 40 per cent of Ontario’s flower sales, she says. “With Hiway, we aim to exceed consumer expectations for value

[vulcan123456789]

1983..good to post as everyone is just giving perspectives.. many have been in this a long time.. dont think there are too many here showing impatience. its good to give perspectives.. share thoughts.. nobody was fighting or discouraging investment... good for new investors to get perspectiives for reassurance... i did enjoy your post cheers

[ridingrockets]

Nice read!

[johnale]

awesome post aurum1983 - on point.  fwiw - I think mm probably liquidated their 44mil shares during the run up to 60. Tons of liquidity to be able to do so.  considering they were in on the raise at 19, they probably were in on the raise at .31. The last raise they sold the 5mil shares they bought and stripped the warrent. Probably did the same here.  The only question