Post by
templetooth2 on Apr 27, 2021 2:03pm
Silver versus Gold Miner valuations
I hadn't given it ANY thought prior to this deal hitting the fan, but for some reason Ag miners are valued significantly higher than Au producers. According to Scotia's weekly tables of their coverage universe, their 4 silver producers trade at an average 2.37 X Nav5%. In the case of un-Fortuna-te, before the stuffstorm, they were trading at 2.03 X NAV of $3.79 (US).
In comparison, Royalty/Streamers (5 companies) trade at 1.55 X NAV.
Larger Au producers go for about 1X and small/intermediates go for .75 X.
Scotia has kind words for this deal, suggesting that it increases NAV5% by 7% to $4.05 proforma for Fortuna. They think Fortuna will continue to trade at a silver company premium for a while, But in 2022 65% of revenue will be Au, growing to 80% when Seguela comes online in 2023.
I think that these crazy silver people will wake up sooner than later and discover that they can look forward to a Fortuna price per share of about $3 - $3.15 (US) in 2023 as an intermediate gold producer.
Meanwhile, Roxy has signalled she's available, cheap, cheap. Paper will do the trick, too.