Gamehost Inc T.GH

War Breaking out in ME ............ Oil to $100+ on Monday

[malx1]

those talking about a short, shallow recession; that story will change with $125 oil

[nukester]

$100 - $125? You may be right, but I hope not. $80 - $85 and everybody wins, producers / consumers etc. Lots of moving pieces to analyze: Saudi Arabia is the swing producer and was starting to hold hands with Israel. Iran obviously did not want that relationship to bloom. From the outside looking in though, it would seem Iran's best interests would be to protect oil shipping lanes. Iran a

[malx1]

Thank you, Nukester. Nobody wants $100 oil.  Agreed. Risks are back:  -Political -Supply disruptions -Storage low -Scarcity You name it. My guess is that we could go back to $90 immediately and creep up from there. No idea how investors react, they may even sell energy equities as commodity price rallies.

[BarstoolSage]

"May you live in interesting times" Seems big picture at play. Hamas is a terrorist organization so named because of their policy of indiscriminate attacks on and use of civilians.  I first thought about the situation as a reaction to Israeli West Bank and East Jerusalem policy and peridic flareups but I expect there is a bigger picture at play. Seems Saudi Arabia and Israel

[cpeczek]

If the war remains contained to Israel-Gaza and the border regions of Lebanon and Syria it likely won't have any impact on long-term oil prices because none of those regions are particularly big oil producers.  What remains to be seen is if Israel or the United States launch some retaliatory strikes or actions against Iran for supporting the Hamas and other Shia militias that are

[malx1]

Bigger picture - Should ME conflict mushroom into multi-nation war, planet faces existential risk of depopulation through starvation. Removing the politics from this discussion, it comes down to OIL. Logistics:  21mm to 22mm barrels per day of oil and fuel is shipped through Persian Gulf, then Straight of Hormuz off SW coast of Iran. Approximately 5mm barrels per day can bypass Straight

[malx1]

https://blog.fleetmon.com/2020/11/26/strait-of-hormuz-the-chokepoint-for-global-oil-demands/ Worth a read if you are interested in Global Oil Markets. The whole world is walking on eggshells, nobody knows it; those that do know, they ignore risk. Getting back to the GH discussion, we can see the strategic importance of Alberta's energy exports.

[nukester]

Thus the beauty of long life oil reserves in politically stable locations. Alberta is one such location.  Alberta has many threats, Inflation, climate legislation, etc. but on a relative scale Alberta remains a politically stable location. How long will Alberta and Gamehost benefit from oil consumption? There is no easy answer, but my instincts tell me when the chips are down, Canada 

[malx1]

BNN guests must be reading our Top Secret GH message board......................................... https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/four-ways-the-israel-gaza-war-could-spike-the-price-of-oil~2785787 Everybody is an oil expert these days... Yet during Pandemic, we were told it's the End of Oil. Reality seems to show up somewhere in the middle. Biggest risk is that several ME nations all

[nukester]

Interesting comments. During the Pandemic, it looked like the end of a lot of things! Call me Polly Anna, but I still dont see a scenario where Iran closes the straight of hormuz. Because... I dont see a scenario where Israel openly attacks Iran. Because... Biden administration has weakened the U.S. ability to fight a sustained conventional battle. Much of our ammo was consumed in Ukraine proxy

[cpeczek]

I agree with your conclusion but from a different angle. If this whole thing was to throw a wrench in Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel, it doesn't make sense for Iran to escalate the conflict to the point where it would be in direct conflict with Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states.  Iran just normalized relations with Saudi Arabia. It would make more sense for them to consolidate