Second Analysis For those interested in estimating costs, Google "Nube-Minera-OHara-Subolewsky" and download the pdf titled Chapter 6.3 COSTS AND COST ESTIMATION
The paper is written in 1992 so adjust prices where appropriate by multiplying by 1.8275 to account for CPI. I used a USD/CDN conversion of 1.35
The formulas result in some interesting projections.
Staffing
215 (mine)
96 (mill)
79 (service)
34 (admin/technical)
That sums to 425 positions for which I projected an annual cost of $53.9M including fringe.
Electrical Power
Peak: 20,699 kW
Usage: 371,525 kWh/day
Thus for 25 x 1 MW generators, I estimated a CAPEX of $33.75M. Assuming a litre produces 3.72 kW, one arrives at annual usage of 36.4 million litres. Assuming $1.24/L and adding in delivery charges, that's about $50.6M/year and represents the largest single lump cost in this analysis.
The main grid is 17 km away. CAPEX for a substation would be around $4M and grid would be about $65k per day. Delta between diesel power generation and hydro over nine years is $270M.
Soil Stripping & Waste Stripping/Blasting
I arrived at $9.6M for LOM here, but one must account for some of this being completed already.
CAPEX (Shovels and Haul Trucks)
3 x 6 cu yd shovels and a fleet of 14 x 30 ton hauling trucks comes to $27.3M
Crushing Plant
Foundations, building, crusher and equipment comes in at about $61.3M. Being able to process larger crush size would reduce this cost.
Grinder, Bins and Conveyor
Sums to a CAPEX of $31M
Camp Infrastructure Costs
Shop, office, warehouse, and other structures comes in at about $4.5M. Much of this cost is already present onsite. Fueling system ($440k) and LV electrical and communications ($1.3M) are likely in place as well.
Tailings Storage
CAPEX is $10.5 but I would assume this is already in place.
Water Supply/Treatment
CAPEX is $9.1M. Much of this is already in place. The ponds need to be relined.
Operations
Crushing, Fine Crushing, Grinding, Cyanidation, Tailings, Assaying all amount to $316M over nine years.
Maintenance
Maintenance of facilities and vehicles is $85.2k/year. Assuming 2.5% CPI, thats 766.8k over 9 years for LOM.
Financing
Assuming 6.75% on the CAPEX incurs interest charges of $58.2M
SUMMARY
Total CAPEX comes to $179.2M of which I believe most of $25M is already in place. A notable swing variable here is the $61.3M crushing plant facility. Are foundations from Viceroy in place? That is $7.75M. Is a suitable building in place? That's another $23M.
Overall, I arrived at a LOM cost over nine years of CDN$1.6B. At USD$1,700 gold over the outstanding 182,034,610 shares, this would be an annual EPS of $0.16 which at a multiple of 15 would be $2.40.
Breakeven in this model is at a gold price of USD$1,475/oz, assuming exhange rate of 1.35 between USD:CDN.