RE:RE:RE:Depreciation/AmortizationEbbFlow88 wrote: Thanks for the info mugsy. The numbers will be big, but how they are amortized will effect "profitability". The real key is our cash flow which is very healthy right now but Income from Operations has been pretty much breakeven.
All things being equal, its a very smart move as we pay less tax but have the cashflow to reinvest. It's also totally legal and conservative of management. So, it's great to see.
I just can't seem to find any info on how these assets are being amortized and whether the lack of income from ops is keeping the share price down in the short term.
Keep this in mind EbbFlow (w.r.t. share price) ...
Knight is a very different animal - as was Paladin.
Both companies progress forward without much fanfare.
Almost 70% of the company at GUD is concentrated in the hands of 65 people (give or take).
I once graphed the annual voting numbers to extrapolate that the entire company is in the hands of a couple thousand investors - with - a bunch coming in and then exiting as they get bored ... expected a jump, didn't get it, exited.
So, in terms of shareholders, there's really no one here.
Though the share volume can seem quite healthy at times, that's really not the case.
Buying is in the hands of a few groups.
Therefore, it is very easy to set up your ask and wait to get your fill - if you're fishing for these shares.
Diehards know how to play this one - all others are trying to guess the jump in share price and get in before it moves. Trying to guess the jump is a losing game.
Demand for shares doesn't come until big institutional investors are sold on this name - and - that takes a long time. We have to get much bigger (on the operations side) in order to attract those investors. We have to fully counter the investment side of the business (which will slowly drop off) and we need to grow the core business.
I still see this as a 2 year plan to get there (roughly 10 years total). Until then, I am watching EBITDA and cashflow - they are the best indicators as to where we are going. EBITDA pulls out the D&A for a cleaner view of actual operations and cashflow gives us a picture of the company's ability to grow (along with cash and securities).
So - if we look 2 years down the road - I see the business all cleaned up and focused on pharma growth. I also see opportunties to be in Sub-Saharan Africa. I could even see a play into S-E Asia. Eastern Europe was also on my radar but Russia has complicated that. Regardless, still early stage strategy.
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Though GUD won't talk to it and Samira played it down when I asked ... I think ATE is a huge opportunity that GUD won't admit to. I also think our shelf prospectus was mostly intended for when ATE completes the P2 and into P3 but now we're going to wait for P2 in 2023.
So ... while GUD grows modestly on its own, with existing cashflow. They continue to scour the world for add-ons. They will grow with partnerships (as we saw with EXELON) ... but ... I continue to bet on the diamond in the rough called ATE.
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Latest ATE updates I may not have shared ...
- GUD owns about 6% of all future ATE global sales and I believe they are aiming for more
- waiting on successful Phase 2 and entry into Phase 3 (when risk is mostly gone)
- ATE lead drug just completed a formulation modification, moving from crystalline to amorphous
- better bioavailability - faster onset - lower dosing - safer
- 2 to 4 fold reduction in acute dosing is possible
- acute Phase 2 is only a 5 day trial (look at past studies to see what that means from a safety perspective).
- global market was $30 BB (chronic) but switched to acute ... now chronic is back on the table
- global market potential for the first drug could be anywhere between $25 BB - $60 BB (acute and chronic) and that doesn't even consider some other potential markets.
- switching rate in the USA to first drug is 40.4% due to being non-addictive and ulcer preventive in the gut
- second drug (IBD) and a third drug (very high pain including IV form) to begin IND trails in 2023
This is just my opinion but I know how much GUD owns of the above - I know why they own it - and I know what will trigger an interest in more of it.
Good Luck !!!!