WCS Price estimates and projections Simple fact is, the SPR draws are, and have had, a real impact to WTI and WCS pricing.
However, by it's very definition, the SPR draws cannot last forever. where does 230mb come from to rebuild the SPR...cdn imports. wcs rebounds. easy peasy.
So many have a short term focus of daily fluctuations and spot pricing, and making a buck today.
Think of it this way....If you were back in April 2020 what differences would you make to your investments ???? would you have bought more of ATH at 0.11?? more BTE at 0.34?? more GXE at ????
The list goes on and on and on
Forest and trees folks
Eye on the prize. There is WAY more upside potential than downside imo. The SPR being the reason. Demand isn't going to shrink below 2022 levels, and can increase dramatically especially with the China wildcard...
So where does the US find 227mb with US production flat and demand stable ????
...and that corrects the WCS
Cheers
***********
Low-price case:
- Production of WCS vastly exceeds storage and takeaway capacity.
- Global production of competing heavy crude oils increases.
***********
Under the WCS low- and high-price cases, similar factors affecting the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast are expected to influence the WCS forecast.
The low-price case forecast for WCS is US$44.09/bbl in 2022, US$37.11/bbl in 2023, and US$34.06/bbl by 2031.
The high-price case forecast for WCS is US$148.80/bbl in 2022, US$128.31/bbl in 2023, and US$145.72/bbl by 2031.
The WCS price is expected to follow WTI trend but remain lower due to quality differences and transportation costs.
https://www.aer.ca/providing-information/data-and-reports/statistical-reports/st98/prices-and-capital-expenditure/crude-oil-prices/western-canadian-select