A naive forecasting model for HGU is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of HorizonsBetaPro SPTSX Glbl G Bull ETF value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Geven 30 days horizon, the value of HorizonsBetaPro SPTSX Glbl G Bull ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 5.19
HorizonsBetaPro SPTSX Prediction Pattern
HGU Forecasted Value
June 20, 2015
5.35
Market Value
Next Trading Day Forecast
|
5.19
Next Trading Day Expected Value
|
 |
Model Predictive Factors
| AIC |
Akaike Information Criteria |
42.6144 |
| Bias |
Arithmetic mean of the errors |
None |
| MAD |
Mean absolute deviation |
0.1274 |
| MAPE |
Mean absolute percentage error |
0.0223 |
| SAE |
Sum of the absolute errors |
2.8026 |
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of HorizonsBetaPro SPTSX Glbl G Bull ETF. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.