I am sure not trying to be a smart a*ss but...
Been studying simple charting and indicators lately and bailed out of HNU above $5. Bought HND at $12.75 and nearly jumped out today... until I reread the chart and just held my ground.
MDA (10,20,50)
DMI
Money Flow (CMF)
MACD
All indicators are down. HOPE IS NOT ENOUGH to invest in HNU right now.
The thesis is correct. NG price will eventually turn around and be a fast riser I suspect... but not anytime soon... not this week - not next.
I hate seeing good people bleed unnecessarily and I am not posting this to be somekind of "Look at me... was I ever smart...". Hell !!! HNU owes me $30,000 over the past year because I just can't get the WHAT SHOULD BE and the WHAT IS to link up properly.
Chartists seem to know what is going on all the time so I started getting some Inbox help from a couple of guys who don't mind sharing, never post on the boards but read them trying to gleem some fundamental thoughts they may have missed elsewhere, and weren't being arrogant when I asked for help sometime ago.
Some guys have posted here that you can't use HNU to track NG technically because of the daily readjust and double levergage thing. Fine... Use UNG or T.GAS that don't readjust... they are one-for-one dead on track with each other. Same chart - same result. There is a very strong ( and strengthening) trend developED, not developING. This looks very risky here if you are afraid of heights.
GET OUT !!! And wait until the trend breaks and we start to move up. I can't really tell you to jump into HND - well I can but don't want to because this whole commodity thing is sort of casino right now. What was $3.51 about today ???? Some traders having a laugh ?
"Hey !!! Let's push a couple of thousand contracts up to $3.51 just before we tank it... ARRRrrrrgggghhhh !!! "
GET OUT !!! All except for those who are going to call me a basher and accuse me of tyring to buy their HNU shares lower... YOU STAY IN AND GO LONG...
If you read previous posts, I was saying the same thing a few days ago only a little more tentatively. Now I'm not mincing words and there are plenty of smart guys here posting the same thing. Some are being a little blunt about it but the message isn't changing.
Now I made some money today because I stopped out my position at $13.50 and Stopped back in at $13.11 (Avg - $13.08 - $13.11 - $13.13). I will definitely sell by tomorrow at closing bell because who knows what Thu 10:30 EDT brings. Reduced inventory and HNU will tank. Higher Build and HNU could tank or sky-rocket. It's all backwards isn't it ?
I will try and catch the swings if it seems logical but will probably play it through HND for another week as I think the trend will hold. Perhaps even longer. And I will keep an eye on it starting into late July / Aug because IT COULD REVERSE THEN... or hold the trend right into November. Last year didn't seem to do a damn thing because of weather.
It's going to be a long summer if you are on the wrong side of the trade...