RE: REPLY to: Thanx Manx and question
Good info...
A couple of points/questions
If Fed decision is bullish for markets over next 3-8 weeks hnu reacting similarly, would it not make sense to buy, also alluding to previous lows in the 5.15 range.
1. nymex NG is benefiting from headline action and politics last 6 months. Tugging at it fundamental demand story mediocre and shoulder season on the horizon, with possible hurricane and offshore drilling catalysts. The sum of all this I am not sure, feels neutral although I worry the NG bandwagon PR campaign is fading.
2. When ng went from 2.50 to 4.50 12 months ago, ng contracts moved rapidly, accelerating hnu from 8-17 in september and held to mid october, roughly mirroring the move of NG spot (right?).
3. granted, no one expects ng to go to 9 any time soon, so how can we correlate todays hnu price action to near term and long term contracts.
The long term price action of hnu, it seems to constantly go to a lower base. contrast with hou esp., heu, etc, are the dynamics seem to be very different. I have observed some of those for close to a year, with no price deterioration. Is this purely a factor of NG contango versus Crude for example?
Guest on BNN today mentioned dangers of leveraged commodity etfs, i.e. mostly dealing with contango for last 6 years, plus daily resets etc.
I realize the danger of picking an entry point on hnu based on historical price action, but would like to have some kind of rule of thumb of correlating spot or outlying ng price to hnu price...