profitmaker wrote: Short is the trade for oil, natural gas and gold and world wide stock markets at large.
2.21.2015, 6:45 AM ET.
Subject to change without notice re: due diligence.
In Summary, this morning's updates:
Natural Gas and Oil
Jan 20th-27th: Weather systems will track across the northern and southern US this week, although it will be relatively mild by late January standards. There will be cold blasts track through that will push chilly temperatures at times into the Southeast this weekend, but Arctic air will remain confined to southern Canada, keeping heating demand mainly moderate over much of the US over the coming week, especially over the western half of the US where it will be warmer than normal.
The natural gas markets gapped lower at the open on Tuesday, and continue to plow into the $2.80 region. That being the case, looks as if the market is getting very close to a break down, which should send this market looking for the $2.60 handle, and then possibly the $2.50 level. With that being the case, we believe that you can only sell this market and since we formed a gap at the open for the Tuesday session, any rally at this point in time would have to be sold as well considering that the area should be resistive going forward.
Obviously, on a break down below the $2.80 level, this is a very strong sell signal as the natural gas market simply cannot get out of their own way. We believe that this is a long-term cyclical bear market, meaning that we have absolutely no plans whatsoever on buying natural gas anytime in the future. We’ve seen this in the past, as the gold markets were in a long-term cyclical bear market during the 1980s, we believe that the natural gas markets will act very similar to that time when fortunes were made by simply selling gold every time it rallies.
In order to understand why this continues is a twofold process: you have to understand that the US dollar continues to strengthen and thereby driving down the value of commodities. Also, you have to understand that the supply is far stronger than any demand for natural gas. After all, there isn’t enough industrial demand around the world as the world economies are fairly slow in general, and then on top of that you have so much natural gas in North America all alone that the Americans and Canadians simply burn it off at petroleum drills as it isn’t even worth collecting and bringing to market. There is literally that much natural gas in North America. Last estimate was 14,000,000,000,000 ft.³, but that was a couple of years ago it may have found several wells of natural gas since then. Improved extraction technique should continue to bring plenty of natural gas to the marketplace.
A must read on natural gas: The National Weather Service's forecast for Friday calls for lows above freezing as far north as Norfolk, Virginia, and for virtually no sub-zero lows across the contiguous US.
https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/houston/nymex-february-gas-futures-settle-at-2831mmbtu-21868350 US 2013 coal production below 1 billion st, lowest in two decades: EIA
https://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/houston/us-2013-coal-production-below-1-billion-st-lowest-21868351 Oil inches above $48, outlook remains weak OPEC member Iran hinted at further price weakness, saying its oil industry could withstand $25 oil.
https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/21/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0KU03F20150121 Gold
Gold Bets on euro zone monetary stimulus also spread through the commodities markets, with gold climbing above $1,300 an ounce for the first time since August. The prospects of looming deflation and increased market volatility were cited as factors supporting demand for bullion.
https://www.business-standard.com/article/reuters/european-shares-gold-supported-ahead-of-expected-ecb-action-115012100654_1.html Expectations that the ECB will announce a sovereign bond-buying program this Thursday - with the potential size seen at around 600 billion euros ($690 billion), according to a Reuters poll - also kept euro zone core bond yields near record lows and the euro close to an 11-year trough.
https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/21/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0KU01920150121 Traders, however, also pointed to ripples of nervousness ahead of the ECB's meeting, given the risk of disappointment if the ECB did not meet market expectations. Bets on euro zone monetary stimulus also spread through the commodities markets, with gold climbing above $1,300 an ounce for the first time since August.
The prospects of looming deflation and increased market volatility were cited as factors supporting demand for bullion.
Oil prices edged up, with Brent crude holding above $48.50, in the wake of a recent heavy sell-off in oil that led Total's (TOTF.PA) chief executive to say the French energy major plans to cut capital spending by 10 percent this year.
Gold atop $1,300 for the first time since August MADRID (MarketWatch) — Investors are rushing back into gold, so much so that they pushed the price above $1,300 an ounce for the first time since August. Gains for gold have been attributed to investors seeking safe havens amid ongoing troubles in Ukraine, political uncertainty in Greece, turmoil triggered by the Swiss National Bank, and some bargain hunting on the heels of depressed prices at the end of 2014. See more in Tuesday’s gold market report The next big event for gold markets is the European Central Bank meeting, which is widely expected to result in quantitative easing. Gold’s hold on $1,300 is tentative, say some. “If the ECB’s likely stimulatory actions cause risk assets to surge higher on Thursday, demand for safe-haven assets such as gold could fall back,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at Forex.com.
https://globalbasic.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=global-basic https://finviz.com/news.ashx https://www.investing.com/commodities/energies https://touch.investing.com/markets/ Natural Gas
Natural.Gas-Past.24.Hour.News
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ung/premarket https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conusLoop.php#tabs https://www.accuweather.com/ https://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php https://www.natgasweather.com/ https://www.fxempire.com/technical/technical-analysis-reports/natural-gas-forecast-january-14-2015-technical-analysis/ https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html Oil
Oil-Past.24.Hour.News
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/uso/premarket https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/ https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html https://www.platts.com/ Gold
Gold-Past.24.Hour.News
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gld/premarket https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold.html