Post by
Mat1791 on Apr 19, 2020 11:08am
Example Using My Numbers...
My HOU ACB(Break Even) = $6.50
HOU = $4.65 therefore I'm down $1.85 or 28.5%
To get back to even HOU $6.50, I need HOU to make 40% (1.85/4.65)
Therefore, at 2X, I need oil to run 20% off of June $25.14 = $30.17 (25.14*1.2)
When in reality, oil on Monday will only cost $18.12 until Tuesday.
Therefore if this holds true and the June gets to $30.17,
HOU will have increased 40%, I will be at break even $6.50
However, oil will have increased 66.5% (30.17-18.12)/18.12
Erosion due to contango...
Comment by
gainwidpatience on Apr 19, 2020 11:29am
imo holding HOU is going very painful this week :(
Comment by
gainwidpatience on Apr 19, 2020 11:33am
imo holding HOU is going to be very painful this week :(
Comment by
northboy78 on Apr 19, 2020 2:10pm
Frig...im not to far from the same numbers. So, chances are on Tuesday oil will not go up. Might be smart to sell now at a loss to buy in lower?
Comment by
DSurfer on Apr 19, 2020 5:53pm
The way I understand it is that Crude will soon show around $25 as the rollover goes and HNU will remain very low. I'm also holding HOU around $6.41 That's just the way it will be till crude goes up I guess. I'm I right? DS
Comment by
DSurfer on Apr 19, 2020 5:55pm
Forgive my typo. HOU I'm getting blind with one eye. How frustrating to say the least. DS
Comment by
Mat1791 on Apr 19, 2020 6:52pm
Crude will be priced at the June contract on Tuesday. It will be what it is, and then will drift based on spot pricing and being the front contract. If you can buy oil on Monday for under $18 and oil opens on Tueday around $24, altough nothing is engraved in stone, my gut is telling me...