The US can achieve a soft landing if and only if They drop rates at the appropriate time and my best guess would be shortly after Q1. There are 3 planned rate cuts and each would be about a quarter point. This would take the Fed funds to 4.5-4.75 by years end 2024. If core inflation falls by more than 75 basis points during 2024 then they would have to cut by more.
Here is why this time may be different than the past hiking cycles.
In every recession post world war 2, nominal Fed funds always exceeded gdp over the previous 12 months. So far, this has not been the case in this hiking cycle. In the past they tightened too quickly and when they didn't, they didn't lower rates soon enough. A recession can happen by tightening too much on the way up, or not loosening soon enough on its way down. So far in this cycle we have,
real Fed funds < real gdp and,
nominal Fed funds < nominal GDP
Other positive that I see is the growth in productivity. As long as productivity growth is in the 1.5-2% range in the US, then core inflation could theoretically come down to its 2% target without an increase in unemployment.
The possible risks I see is if Jerome Powell does not drop rates soon enough when it is clear that the inflation fight is over. I believe he has redeemed himself from the mistakes he made when he declared inflation as transitory.