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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Husky Energy Inc. cumulative redeemable preferred T.HSE.PR.B

TSX:HSE.PR.B - Post Discussion

Husky Energy Inc. cumulative redeemable preferred > Evaluating Reward Opportunity of Preferreds
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Post by RagingBull3 on Jun 05, 2020 9:07am

Evaluating Reward Opportunity of Preferreds

As with all stocks that are 2 main Rewards:

1) Dividends/Yield:    There's no question, Yields on HSE Preferreds are HIGH.    Finding such high yields on a relatively (to its peers) "solid" company is rare.    We all know that usually dividend "reward" is usually very small to Capital/share price Gain....   But, when something this rare appears, it's worth consideration.   

2) Capital/Share Price Gain:   With such high yields, share price bound to increase.   With interest rates at "effective lower bound", interest bound to increase, which will increase dividends and yields.     There is also chance of company going Private. In this event, Preferreds redeemed for $25 I believe.  

Bottom Line.... After reset, these Preferreds are at the BOTTOM in terms of Dividends/Rates.      Buy the BOTTOM!!!

Just my opinion.     Usually you can't time the Bottom.... But in this case, BoC effectively telling you THIS IS THE BOTTOM!
Comment by CanadianPreferr on Jun 08, 2020 11:25am
When evaluating HSE prefereds you should be aware how they compare to the rest of the preferreds universe within the same class. This comparison of all Canadian Preferreds with a credit rating of 2L (like Husky)  https://canadianpreferredshares.ca/compare-preferred-shares-with-credit-rating-pfd-2L/    speaks volumes.
Comment by RagingBull3 on Jun 08, 2020 12:10pm
HSE Preferreds ranks the HIGHEST in Yields...    Also it has a Majority Shareholder, which I consider as "Extra Insurance" for Commons and Preferreds in an event of bankruptcy (Majorty most likely will take company private).    Also, # of Preferreds small compared to # of Commons..... Again, could be important in an event of Bankruptcy.    Again, another ...more  
Comment by RagingBull3 on Jun 08, 2020 12:37pm
Yes it speaks volumes about supposed "credit rating" when yields range from 4.9% to over 10% for the same "rating" (risk). Why such a large spread for the same rating???
Comment by CanadianPreferr on Jun 08, 2020 1:08pm
Preferreds are a complex structure with many metrics to consider. Free Information regarding preferreds is very limited. In my opinion the reasos for the large spread between the 2L preferreds are. . Fear of the company going bankrupt. . Renewal Date of the preferred. (Due to current interest rate) . Sturcture of the preferred ( Reset/Floating/Min Reset/Perpetual) . Initial spread . Investor ...more  
Comment by RagingBull3 on Jun 08, 2020 1:50pm
With BoC rates at "Effective Lower Bound"....... There's plenty of room for rates to go up.... which will translate into Higher Yields, which will probably translate into Higher Share price......   If not, I'll take the higher yields and collect the dividend.... Thank you very much.
Comment by RagingBull3 on Jun 08, 2020 2:00pm
Ya, I'm new to Preferreds.   Never really paid any attention to them.... Until now because of the Crazy Yields.    Just think... high much higher the Yields will go when BoC starts increasing them again! I'm guessing I'll be making over 20%+ Yield in dividends next reset.
Comment by CanadianPreferr on Jun 08, 2020 2:40pm
You can find out exactly what the yields will be for each of the reset. The second part of most compare tools/Pages have a "What if Secnario". This shows you what the yield will be when the preferred renews if the bank of canada rate is X. Today I only show upt to 5 rates. Reset Scenarios Based on Various G.O.C. 5 Year Bond Yield Rates The following table presents 5 scenarios, of the ...more  
Comment by RagingBull3 on Jun 08, 2020 2:47pm
What about Negative Rates?   Your opinion?    Also, does your website handle negative rates?   
Comment by CanadianPreferr on Jun 08, 2020 3:46pm
I do not think we are going to negative rates. In terms of preferreds: . perpetuals: Not affected by rates since they never reset. . Resets. If they dont have a Minimum reset guarantee, they are getting hit if they renew during the period of the negative rates. Even so keep in mind the following a).You only have to wory about those reseting during the period of negative rates.  Staying with ...more  
Comment by wheeloffortune on Jun 08, 2020 1:14pm
Thanks for the link.  That's exactly what I was looking for. 
Comment by RagingBull3 on Jun 08, 2020 1:52pm
You made this website?!   I'm impressed.   Thank you.   So, which Preferred do you hold?