RE: Ithaca without AthenaForget Athena for the moment - management says that it is uneconomic below ~$60 bbl. They stopped all work on it 6+ months ago.
Athena was a big reason why this company took such a massive hit - that plus the worries it couldn't raise cash to put Jacky/Beta platform into production or buy Beatrice. But the Dyas deal was superb - it gave IAE the needed cash and effectively wiped out the debt (Dyas assumed the $61.2MM in convertible debt for 15% of the company if they don't repay by 2012 - that values IAE at around US$400MM, a huge premium to current valuations, but one that reflects rational valuations and current selling prices).
Based on cash flow from ~7000-7,500 net bpd from Jacky/Beatrice/Beta, IAE should generate approximate US$70MM in cash flow annualized. IAE is trading about 1x cf, which is absurdly cheap - the rest of the market is trading ~-2-4x cf and in "normal" times trades 5-8x cf. I see 100% upside as a minimum from current prices. I would not be surprised to see even better returns once the market is satisfied with production results (assuming they meet expectations).
As for the future, Stella and or Carna gas is the likely direction IAE is headed in the near term. When oil inevitably rebounds in a few years (the credit crunch will keep substantial amounts of oil off the market due to delayed/abandoned projects and we'll have another price spike), Athena's oil will figure prominently again. I think oil will stay around these levels for the rest of they year and then move up as world economies strengthen in 2010. The market is already seeing a bit of renewed buying interest and hopefully the "sell in May" crowd sold a long time ago and will never return. Hard to envision people selling plays trading at 1x cf even in this crazy market, but as we've seen, just about anything goes when fear is rampant.