IAE should be a $1-$1.50 stock right now.This unwelcome dumping really took the wind out of IAE's sails - obviously a big seller used news of production as a liquidity event to unload a large position.
But based on strong cash flow and netbacks, IAE should be trading 1-2x higher right now. I guess the market has to be slapped awake first with firm numbers from financials.
But with Brent less $21 for netbacks, at US$57 Brent, IAE is cash flowing US$36 (C$42) bbl. With 7500 bpd net, that's C$115MM annualized vs current EV of C$150MM. Trading just over 1x annualized cf
If oil prices keep moving, Athena may soon be revived. Last year they said they need ~$60 bbl for the economics to work (assuming high service and rig costs of the past few years) - with falling rig/service costs and rising oil prices, Athena could well be viable right now...
I expect IAE to do some sort of farm out to raise cash to put Stella/Carna and Athena into production. Current sales prices in the market are multiples of what the equity market is giving. BVX/OIL sold in the dark days in early '09 for about C$10 bbl 2P reserves. Endeavour just sold their Norwegian assets for C$20 bbl 2P, so sales prices are rising strongly already...