long term viewSo for me the big question what will oil do? Nothing is ever 100% but things are setting up for strong support to prices from increased demand, so I believe Oil will trade higher in the next few years. On that thesis some back of the napkin numbers based on guidence from the last presentation and that we are trading around 4.3 times cash flow.
1st assumption oil holds these prices $60 cash flow per barrel, and 255 million shares outstanding:
2010 5.5 k * 360 days = 1.98 million barrels * 60 = $118.8 million CF or
.46 per share @ $2 SP = 4.3 times CF
2011 6.4 k * 360 days = 2.304 million * 60 = $138.24 million CF or
.54 per share * 4.3 = $2.32 per share
2012 12.2k * 360 = 4.392 million * 60 = $ 263.52 million CF or $1.03 per share * 4.3 = $4.42 per share
2013 23.1k * 360 = 8.316 million * 60 = $ 498.96 million CF or $ 1.95 per share * 4.3 = $ 8.38 per share
total cash flow thru 2013 $1.01952 Billion
2nd assumption oils adds $5 per year to price:
2010 5.5 k * 360 days = 1.98 million barrels * 60 = $118.8 million CF or
.46 per share @ $2 SP = 4.3 times CF
2011 6.4 * 360 = 2.304 million * 65 = $149.76 million CF or
.58 per share * 4.3 = $2.50 per share
2012 12.2k * 360 = 4.392 million * 70 = $ 307.44 million CF or $1.20 per share * 4.3 = $5.16 per share
2013 23.1k * 360 = 8.316 million * 75 = $ 623.7 million CF or $2.44 per share * 4.3 = $10.49 per share
total cash flow thru 2013 $1.1997 Billion
3rd assumption oil adds $10 per year to price:
2010 5.5 k * 360 days = 1.98 million barrels * 60 = $118.8 million CF or
.46 per share @ $2 SP = 4.3 times CF
2011 2.304 million * 70 = $ 161.28 million CF or
.63 per share * 4.3 = $2.71 per share
2012 4.392 million * 80 = $ 351.36 million CF or $ 1.37 per share * 4.3 = $ 5.89 per share
2013 8.316 million * 90 = $ 748.44 million CF or $ 2.93 per share * 4.3 = $ 12.60 per share
total cash flow thru 2013 $1.37988 Billion
I realize my assumptions are not even close but gives one a longer term perspective, I will be trading some shares but I will still be holding my core position for a few more years. Not to mention still looking for another aquisition of producing assets before year end. GLTA