IEA Contingency Plans to release 14M bopd https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/us-iea-contingency-idUSTRE8051FV20120106
IEA has made contingency plans for members to release 14 M bopd if the Strait oil flow is blocked. 17M bopd is shipped thru the Strait daily, 14 tankers daily.
Oil is the sector to be in IMO. Even IF the IEA members released their oil reserves 14 M bopd for 1 month, their reserves would be depleted significantly and need to be replaced.
I do not think that Iran will not try and shut the strait, but will threaten to do so, and may harass shipping however. However in a year or so if the West tries to bomb the Iran nuclear sites all options including for sure closing the Strait is likely.
Still anticipating news shortly on a number or items and would expect an update on BW Athena:
I expect an NR IMO shortly, possibly next week on:
1. Stella formal FDP submission was due end of 2011.
2. Hurricane well drilling.
Either of these might have include an update on BW Athena.
Still expecting the work to be completed very shortly, end of Jan sailing, cant be soon enough.
Watching both AIS and IAE volume of signs that the BW Athena has sailed.
GLTA, Long and Strong