RE:RE:some POO musings "not exactly ferret,"
ummmm Keith you may want to reread my post ,
"oil production in the usa was actually up a bit this week , only about 10k but still up"
I stated this week , obviously it's down over the year, but it is up from last week.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SNDW_DCUS_NUS_W.htm this link goes back as far as you want and shows the charts
us production will start flat lining in the fairly near future for at least the medium term and plenty long enough to damage iae's price it gets for oil post stella.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-21/the-fracklog-isn-t-growing-anymore-and-that-s-bad-news-for-bulls canada is increasing production over the next few years.
china has pretty much their massive stock pile of oil reserves from over the past 2 years so who knows how much of extra oil production on a daily basis went into that and skewed world demand numbers.
iran iraq and nigeria are ramping up production, mexico has let in foreign oil companies to boost production.
renewables are growing at a quicker pace, china is bringing on about 50 nuclear reactors over the next few years, among other countries.
we will be into another shoulder season in just over a month and reserves are not falling much, if at all.
in the past we always had the saudis to raise or lower production to sort things out, no longer the case.
only thing that will see poo get to kensho's numbers is if opec makes a deal to lower production, not likely after all this time.
iae is in a position where it will have to put on it's big boy pants and deal with the open market, the past 2 years hedges and delek saved their bacon, those days are pretty much gone and I don't think iae has the wherewithall to survive oil under $50 or so IMHO.
cheers ferret