facts from the eia and iea
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/tables/?tableNumber=6#periodtype=q&startcode=201501&endcode=201704
both don't look good for the medium term for poo, in fact the iea's chart doesn't show world production falling to world demand until the 3rd q 2017. iae isn't predicting that far out but has kicked it's market rebalancing projections further down the foad.
this is not good news for stella production, imho it is really quite possible that the stella field production could actiually be in decline by the time energy markets balance out. oil should move higher before that happens but who knows how much.
the last major supply disruptions caused oil to spike to around $55 and that was with well over 1 mil bod knocked out with the combined fort mac fire and nigerian militant actions. so, how much would another major disruption bump oil?? probably about the same
sure looks to me like oil will be pretty much range bound over the next year.
cheers ferret