Post by
metalhead666 on Apr 07, 2023 6:36pm
Buy ARTEMIS instead of I80.....
When you read Taylor Darts analysis you'll see dates 10 years into the future when I80 could be a 500k ounce producer. A lot will happen between now and then and if you know the gold space...particularly the junior miners....you should know they are boom/bust stocks. They can triple in a year and give it all back and then some a year later. ALL gold miners are rentals. They are not investments. They are to be bought cheap and sold dear without ever getting married to them.
I80 is a unique story. They have the goods in the right place at seemingly the right time...but...it's very disturbing to have the millions of share overhang by EQX and to see relentless shorting of the stock in a gold bull market. I don't know what's going on and neither do you and no one is offering any explanation....this is a RED FLAG. I don't care what has transpired, what the future may hold on the drilling front but I do know that RED FLAGS should NEVER be ignored.
I80 with 8 drill rigs turning...many drilling deep holes....will burn through their cash very quickly. The modest sales help but they are a long way away from being cash flow positive and will require a significant amount of money to get there. It won't be this year either as they are intent on pouring resources into multiple projects with the drill bit. All well and good when building a large company but it doesn't do much for me in the short run.
It's concerning too that no drill results have been released even as they posted pics of the cores and have been drilling since Jan. I find it difficult to believe that assay labs are that backed up in Northern Nevada. If they hit a bunch of sub par or dusters and are willfully holding back those results.....hoping to hide them with some better holes....well you can imagine what will happen to the stock price
I trust NO ONE and trust gold miners least of all. Just saying what you should be thinking. I could be all wrong but I never doubt my intuition and if I miss a big move so what? I'd gladly miss a move than take a dive so when my spider sense starts tingling I get out...I'm out of I80 If I'm proven wrong I'll re-evaluate but things aren't to my liking now..too many unknowns and unresolved questions.
ARTEMIS on the other hand will be pouring gold at a 300k plus rate in less than 18 months. Fully financed, fully permitted, constuction underway, mine plan optimized so that the payback period at $2000 gold is under 2 years. Free cash flow will be in excess of $350 million per year. IRR is over 40% after tax now. Mine life is over 20 years. At $2000 gold the mine pit shell can be profitably expanded...no drilling required to add ounces and years of production. Every $ higher in gold is now gravy on top of gravy. It's a straight forward open pit high tonage, high grade simple project without any of the risks associated with underground. Blow it up, truck it, mill it, sell it. No money going back into the ground looking for more...a prime takeover target. The NPV is now $3.5 billion with a market cap of 900 million CAD. 25% of NPV and on the verge of commercial production...it should be drawn like a moth to a flame to 1x NPV making for a triple or better in less than 2 years...the sweet spot of the Lasonde Curve. Prime location, scale, grade, financing, permits, under construction now not in 5 years.
I like Skeena for all the same reasons but they are a year or two behind even as their financials are even better than Artemis
I prefer to have only a few eggs in my basket and watch the basket closely. Artemis presents the least risk with the most upside in the shortest period of time of any project I know. It doesn't rely on the next set of drill results to make or break it. It doesn't need to discover or define any resource...all done. If I can get a triple with little to no uncertainty I'll take it every time. I80 has some quirks now that don't add up...everything at Artemis adds up including 40% insider ownership. I doubt they are going to act in any way that doesn't serve their best interests. They plowed 200 million large of their own money into Blackwater ...highly unlikely they aren't going to get a multi bagger return on that.
I own a modest position in Artemis...a small one in Skeena. I intend to build a large stake this year. Can't own em all and don't want to. I want the biggest return for the lowest risk. No grandslams but no wiffs either. Artemis and Skeena offer it...I80 I'm too unsure of.