RE:RE:RE:Take overGood morning Apaulson,
I agree with most of your saying.You are correct on the reporting dates of NCIB.
While they could wait until august 10th to report, Canfor reports on a weekly basis.
I used to be a CFP shareholders and wrote to IR to find out.They replied that it was on a weekly
basis and i did follow their reporting and it was the way they reported.
IFP is by far my largest stock position so maybe i am seeing things that are not there at all but
like i wrote previously, it does not make any sense to see CFP stop it's NCIB when they have so much cash and trading at such a cheap valuation.
At the end of March,CFP had a book value of $31.96 and had cash of $8.91 / shares.
This will jump to more than $34 and $11 after the Q2 reporting.
Jimmy failled to privatized CFP in Aug 2019 for $16.Barbara Islop was able to organized enough
support to reject his low ball offer.
Will Jimmy try it again or will CFP go after a big acquisition?
Again, for me it make a ton of sense for Canfor to buy IFP.It would be highly accretive to earnings
IFP has only 3 mills out west and with the EACOM deal, this would help tremendously the geographic foot print of CFP.
IFP trades at less then half it's assets replacement cost.
Also, while i have been very much impressed by Interfor's capital allocation decisions over the past
2 years, i just don't understand why they are not initiating a major SIB while the stock trades at such an historical low valuation.
IFP has never had such a strong balance sheet and over the past 10 years, it has never traded below 1 time book.As of friday, it was trading at my estimating Q2 ending of less than .77
IFP has 19% less shares outstanding then 2 years ago. and it's production capacity/ shares as
grown 88% with last years 3 acquisitions.
I could go on and on with but you get my point.
In the 2000's we had a lot of steel company(and steel processors trading on the TSX(Dofasco, Stelco,Ipsco,Algoma, Harris, Samuel.Leroux...).Once one was acquired, they all were(Stelco went banckrupt buy was purchased by private equity).Now Stelco and Algoma are back.
I think there is a possibility that we could see the same thing happening with our forest industry.
After Resolut, we could see many more acquisitions coming.
When the steel stocks got taken out, they were just like the forest stocks, making tons of $$$ and trading at ridiculous multiples.
Time will tell.Excuse all my spelling mistakes, i am french.