I MAY BE CRAZYMaybe I am crazy but here goes:
In 2019, Newcrest bought a 70% interest in Red Chris for $806.5US million or roughly $1.07 billion CDN.
So 30% would be worth roughly $460 million.
But since 2019, drilling has proven up significant additional reserves and commodity prices are higher so a more relevant value might be $750 million.
Thus, value to III=$750 million.
Less III debt = roughly $200 million
Less reclamation costs $140 million
III’s value attributable to Red Chris but without Mount Polley or other properties would be $410 million or roughly $2.65 per share.
Thus, the value of Mount Polley is the determinant as to the potential gain to be derived from an investment in III. III’s published financials are sufficiently deficient that makes it difficult to attribute a value to Mount Polley and furthermore, there has only been one operating quarter since the restart of this property.
I have no idea as to what a fair value for MP might be but perhaps someone on this board can make a guess.
Comments or criticisms welcome.