rising inflation pressures bullish for gold
by Joe Battaglia
Posted: March 10, 2009
Stocks are rallying aggressively this morning with the Dow up over 200 points. Perhaps this is the beginning of a significant bear market rally according to some analysts. The metals are down today with gold off $10 and silver down $.25. Gold now appears ready to test the $900 support level and if that fails to hold, analysts will be looking towards $880 on a technical basis. Of course, no one knows precisely where a correction bottom will occur however, gold does look favorably priced at these levels and analysts are recommending investors accumulate gold at this time. Jim Cramer for example, has been saying he felt gold was vulnerable to a test of $900 or perhaps even as low as $880. However, he has been saying repeatedly that investors should be accumulating gold at these levels. He has also been recommending the accumulation of silver.
Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke before the council on foreign relations this morning and indicated that the economy is likely to continue to worsen. He said unemployment rates of 10% or more are well within the range of possibilities. It is interesting that while the economy is sinking, the dollar has been quite strong. However, with the equity market in a rally mode, the dollar has fallen aggressively down 100 basis points this morning. Oil is also turning around and is up $1 at $48.07 a barrel. Could oil return to $50 a barrel? It certainly appears likely.
The continuing correction and consolidation in gold is directly related to the bounce in the equity market in the view of many analysts. Gold is viewed as a safe haven asset. If equities are going to rally and if the financial system is stabilizing, then it would be reasonable to assume that safe haven demand will drop off. However, once the economy begins recovering, the massive amounts of money that have been pumped into a global financial system are nearly certain to produce rising inflation pressures, which again would be very bullish for gold. As the Aden Sisters have been saying in their weekly reports; gold appears to be making a cyclical low at this point. Once that low is in, another up-leg will begin that should carry gold to new record highs.
One analyst told the Dow Jones Wire Service that gold has been trading in a range of $900 to $950 and is unlikely to break out of that range in the next week or so. However, many analysts continue to forecast gold well above $1,000 an ounce over the course of this year. Forecasts of $1,050 to $1,200 are quite common. Some analysts continue to cite technical selling in the metals. Others say that while the market may be soft on the near-term, the long-term outlook remains very bullish. Given the fact that most of these analysts remain long-term bullish and since Fed Chairman Bernanke says if the banks stabilize the recession will end later this year, the outlook for inflation ahead is increasing. Therefore, the need to own gold as an inflation hedge will begin to emerge as a significant factor in this market. Remember, gold is an asset that protects purchasing power over the long-term. It is essentially "wealth insurance". It is also "crisis insurance". Therefore, investors should own some gold in their portfolios.