Vision, data and gut feel says "Buy" I am new to this board and will offer some viewpoints with the benefit of over 30 years of investing and a past role as a broker with a top 3 investment firm. I have been through many oil boom/bust cycles and have learned that markets are fickle, but not stupid. Right now my radar says sentiment sucks but the facts are going to drive in the big money. Here's my rationale...
CAPEX budgets have been cut by 30% - 60%. The fracing oil service companies have thrown in the towel, names such as Haliburton and Baker Hughes. U.S. shale production is in rapid decline. Offshore drilling is starting to look interesting again for the majors, but peak production is years away.
The whole B.S. fiasco with Arab and Russian oil trying to kill U.S. production is typical Trumpian-type of paranoia. The oil magnates he supported are shooting themselves in the head and looking to blame others for their woes and a business case that requires US $45 a barrel just to break even. Lastly, Canadian assets are at bargain prices and the tire kicking is just starting.
So, why be bullish?
There is no situation, that I have seen/read about, which models supply meeting demand in the next 3 -5 years. I happen to like the site oilprice.com which has some pretty good analysis and charts to reinforce my view.
I also think that analysts in the investment firms are number crunchers and have no real intuition guiding their views. In fact, they can't have a view not supoprted by numbers. But we personal investors can take their data in stride and follow your own logic and gut.
That's where I sit. I simply see IMO as a hugely undervalued entity that is well run, has a huge $ war chest and can pivot due to deep vertical integration, or can buy assets at pennies on the dollar.
I see excellent upside here and the chart is starting to look good too.
Take care. Happy investing.