Ivanhoe's biggest risk factor - unrest and/or war in DRCThe biggest risk for IVN sharevalue in my opinion is the status of the DRC's political climate and how that may affect Kipushi and Komoa. Here is the latest:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-congo-politics-idUSKCN10B0L1
This uncertainty will create short term volatility, but I think Ivanhoe and Robert Friedland can manage this, no matter the outcome and IVN shares remain a buy. Here's how IVN can mitigate events as they transpire over the next 12 months (which by the way, should provide enough time to see how the DRC shakes out with its scheduled elections in November). Will the DRC transition peacefully and leave the mining licenses intact and unchanged? Or will a warlord remain in power casting a large shadow and spooking potential partners in a joint venture with Ivanhoe to develop - we should know soon enough.
Keeping options open and retaining the order of development priority remains IVN's advantage right now. In other words, if the elections scheduled in November are not held and the DRC descends into chaos, IVN should likely first develop platreef, then return to Kipushi and Komoa. If the DRC transitions somewhat peacefully, then IVN should consider developing Kipushi and Komoa expeditiously.
If a global recession hits caused by central banks/finance/global debt, in the short term demand for copper will shrink, but demand for precious metals will likely increase. In this scenario IVN shoud likely develop platreef first - then Kipushi and/or Komoa when copper prices rebound and the recession abates. If no recession comes, and demand for copper increases, IVN should consider DRC mine development.
IVN remains undervalued and has a lot of potential. It has optionality at the moment. But it loses this optionality once it commits to a development plan with partners. I for one am happy to wait a few months to see how circumstances and conditions evolve...continue to chip away and accumulate.