RE:AfrithmeticI compare your analysis with the RBC published version for interest sake (I have access to it).
They use a DCF-based net asset value approach (their wording) and indicate a 12-month sp target of $2.75. What is interesting to me is that their pricing reflects the assumption of zero cashflow until at least the end of 2018. So I take that to mean their pricing reflects a conservative valuation based on the premise of either slower progress on Kapushi or delays. Their discussion notes the open-ended timeline for development, which is not consistent with what Freidland stated in the CC last week, so I expect many analysts are pricing this company on the basis of assumptions about timelines to development and uncertainties associated with development that are increasingly out of sync with reality. My read of the companies activity has been that they are in fact building the three mines (now arguably four) and there are timelines to production. I would also agree that financing is a modest risk here given the quality of the assets, the partners, and the experience of the company in these jurisdictions.
So all of this is to say that I would expect to see an accelerating convergence of the current analyst sp projection numbers with something based on emerging future cashflows as the financial community takes into account the actual progress towards production. I think your analysis gives us a clear sense of what those numbers might be.