Lots of variables and unknowns from this IVN adventure. But the potential is undeniable, vast, and in my opinion, inevitable.
No one knows the final numbers that will make up the SP of IVN in full flow, or even if IVN will still be around to reach full operational potential..... or even what "full potential" is!
My biggest fear is not that IVN will be bought out, but how much of IVN will be bought, and when.
My guess is China...... and K&K(s) as targets, at least...
NPV is a mute point in my own speculation, as I theorise IVN will neither be sold, nor bought whilst NPV is the only valuing factor (I think they are going to find more metals, as IVN themselves seem to suggest).
A potential buyer will be spending one heck of a lot of money, and will likely want to see the fruits of 20+ years of work in the DRC, become a money generating reality. A risk reduction strategy that will cost the buyer more in the long run, but an acceptable, more comfortable, and even sane decision.... I hope! and the flip side to that, is RF seeing that maximum sale value will be achieved at that stage of development, mining, and probably continuing exploration.
That brings us into the good old world of PE. Again, speculation over final output rates, AISC, the prices of the metals, demand growth, PE multiple....no one knows for sure, but some cycles are in our favour.. and however long that might take to favour us, it's not hurting the potential value of IVN right now.
Run the numbers any (sane and reasonable) way you want, the potential is impressive!
Heck, even allow yourselves to wander into a world where real things become as attractive, and achieve the PE ratios of some of the FAANG's of this world.
I see the real chance of the FAANG bubble bursting, then, who knows, people might run to the safety of real things... not unlike Mr. Buffet's own strategy of owning "real" things...
Tell me this couldn't happen.
I recall RR saying most recently, that he is extremely long IVN, and as such, I doubt the short term minutia is of any interest. He and others will be looking at the big picture .. over the next few years.. and yes, including keeping an eye on risk.
IVN is not just a good story, one for the history books..... It's anywhere from a rather very good investment, to something a lot, lot more than that.... Especially at these, and still early stages!
and that applies to both my theoretical future for IVN, or RF keeping hold, and running all the mines as one behemoth of a company.