RE:RE:RE:RE:patienceWhen the trend is up, I ignore pretty much everything and hold. That worked well in 2016 until early 2017. The rise January was nice but seemed accelerated relative to 2016, which put me on alert, as any exponential increase is usually met with consolidation. The chatter here also became euphoric, with the arrival of many new investors, which is another big warning flag in markets. When it peaked in the $5 range the second time I was seeing an overall rollover in the mining market (I use a group including TCK, FM and HBM as indicators) , so I become concerned about a similar pattern in IVN. I sold most of my holdings at that time, and the daily march down to under $4 was a strong signal that markets were now actively moving the shares, not fundamentals. It also broke through the 50 dma with little pause, a big technical indicator.
I called a head and shoulders formation here and that has held, and now we are in a down trend channel. It touched the upper limit yesterday and bounced down. A bottom of that channel could be around $3.50 or so, and there is a strong resistance level at $3.75 or so. If it does break out of the down trend, there is now overhead resistance at the 50 dma around $4.55 (and now declining), so I doubt it will run away to the upside.
My main concerns going forward are macro. If the market continues this trend, we may see a 50/200 dma crossover (or death cross) and that would suggest a long period before we revisit the highs recently set. I don't expect that, but I am mindful of it. The NASDAQ action of late speaks volumes about market jitters, something that feels a lot like early 2008. I sold almost everything in Jan 2008, sat on the sidelines feeling like a fool most of the summer, and then benefited by timing that winter.
I know what they are likely to recover from the drills and I expect it will be similar to what they have already. These deposits are characteristically consistent. A surprise might emerge from the exploration targets, but I expect a slow summer while they drill and progress continues. Markets are jittery and IVN will get taken down with everything if there is a correction. I see the risk not of being left out but of further consolidation or negative sentiment.
I posted a few examples several weeks ago that have traded similarly, AZ and NCA , and NCA has now completed the consolidation and is looking good. It took many months and had a painful drop to shake people out. I called that peak too when it dropped below the 50 dma, although my confidence to do so was not 100%. I sold and bought back in way lower. The posts are there if you want to look at them.
When I mean objective, I am parsing out my positive view of the projects and fundamentals for IVN, from what is to me a clear pattern of market action that will temporarily erode value. I have learned that listening to people that say hold "long and strong" is a recipie for losing money, even with the best companies. This is probably the best mining company I have invested in, but it is not immune to the daily and swing gyrations of the market makers. They won't make money on deals with IVN, so I expect they are using volume and short term sentiment to squeeze some trading profits out of this.
Obviously, IMO. Many posters here are holding long and that is fine too. Everyone has different risk tolerances and willingness to trade. I won't day trade but I don't mind the swings as they tend to be reasonable profitable. I know there are many others here that do the same and some have shared their experiences to my benefit.