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Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. T.IVN

Alternate Symbol(s):  IVPAF

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is a Canada-based mining, development, and exploration company. It is focused on the mining, development and exploration of minerals and precious metals from its property interests located primarily in Africa. Its projects include Kamoa-Kakula Complex, Western Foreland, Kipushi and Platreef. The Kamoa-Kakula Complex project is a stratiform copper deposit with adjacent prospective exploration areas within the Central African Copperbelt, approximately 25 kilometers (kms) west of the town of Kolwezi and approximately 270 kms west of the provincial capital of Lubumbashi. The 17 licenses in the Western Foreland cover a combined area of 2,407 square kilometers to the north, south and west of the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex. The Kipushi Project lies adjacent to the town of Kipushi and 30 kms southwest of the provincial capital of Lubumbashi. Its Platreef project is situated approximately eight km from Mokopane and 280 km northeast of Johannesburg, South Africa.


TSX:IVN - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by ursusbrumaeon Oct 22, 2018 9:40pm
244 Views
Post# 28852731

The trouble with this stock...

The trouble with this stock...as everyone knows, more or less, is the jurisdictions.  There is a trend today in Africa towards resource nationalism, and the foreign companies are feeling the heat.  In spite of an advanced economy with good infrastructure, RSA seems to have quite a dysfunctional political system, with a lot of populist rhetoric about expropriation of white lands, and increasing rents from miners.  it is like drawing blood from a stone, because the mining industry in South Africa has not made money in decades.  Platreef requires huge capital investment for a very long-dated mine which will not come into production for many years, in metals which have been down in the dumps for a long time.  Markets turn, but it is not even clear at this point what will drive PGMs on the demand side, and the bull thesis rests on supply curtailment after all the corpses of existing mines are piled high in the Bushveld, like so many springboks ambushed by a pride of lions.  So banks and equity investors are fairly reluctant to invest there, and perhaps for very good reason.  In the DRC, it has been commented by those close to the situation, that the politicans are more pragmatic and calculated, so the country is open for business, on their terms.  But the dramatic rhetoric and ever-shifting sands in parliament make outsiders nervous, and even those accustomed to dealing there raise an eyebrow.  The threat of civil war means that banks are reluctant to lend.  And the Western multinationals who have long profited from investments in the DRC are getting squeezed by more aggressive taxation, and numerous legal battles, as well as growing scrutiny by Western governments over "payments" which are made in the normal course of doing business in the DRC, but which are considered unacceptable by Western democratic standards.  So the miners are stuck between a rock and a hard place, so for the moment this puts a cap on what majors are willing to do there, if anything.  The one enthusiastic class of investors there is the Chinese parastatal companies.  But China is a country dominated by state-run industry and power is highly concentrated there, so taking a small liberty one could argue that there is really only one bidder here, and that is Emperor Xi.  They are the only ones willing to put an army on the ground to defend the deposits, the mines, the road, and rails.  One bidder does not make an auction.  If you look at what Canadian oil behind pipe is fetching these days, land-locked and capitive to United States refineries, you will see that Western Canadian Select recently touched $16, a record 80% discount to $80 Brent crude.  A lot of infrastructure must be built to beneficiate these ores, and it will take time.  Meanwhile so many interests are fighting for their slice of the pie, as yet unbaked, and the constant headlines of internecine conflict, military repression, ebola, and election controversy are not encouraging foreign investors.  It will be interesting to see what the election brings, if it is indeed held.  It could be business as usual, or a dramatic change for the better, or worse.  The perception of a relatively fair election and a transition of power, even of an incumbent-friendly regime, may help.  The ambiguity in the mining code and the many stringent regulations which are not enforced are just another uncertainty in an already volatile and risky business.  We shall see after the election if any clarity comes in this matter.  Higher metal prices will help, as they regenerate interest in the sector, and buoy profits to allow for greater wealth to be spread around.  Makoko is great.  It doesn't move the needle for the company, but it is encouraging to see further finds reconfirming the district play.  There is no question that these assets are Tier 1, and will produce billions in cash flow in the years to come.  I do commend management for continuing to make the best of a difficult situation.
Bullboard Posts