Contango or bacwardation-JE makes money Previous TA of NG was medium term
Here the big picture and is GREAT geeeesus
1. UNG= NG futures ETF moved today up 4.3 % vs JE -n 2.29% and JE -t= 2.14 %
US market is more bullish - JE = $ US 11.15 - way more than CAD exchange indicates
vs TSX = $ 10.96
2.UNG on 1 week = 15% , 3 weeks 20% , 5 months =60%
geeeesus
3. MAJOR SECULAR UNG EVENT - GOLDEN CROSS ( once in 4 y )
Last time UNG 50 DMA moved above 200 DMA was in march 2008
see what happened after that
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=UNG&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm50&a=&c=
UNG moved from 330 to 545 = another 60%
4 UNG another 60% move to say $35 from $ 22.3 would be
NOTHING in comparison to how much UNG tanked in 4 y ( $ 500 to 14.25 geeeesus )
5 IF JE PROVED THEY CAN GROW IN :
-- NG PRICE ENVINROMENT TANKING 97%
-- in a biggest depresion since Great Depression
-- in a biggest stock market crash in recent memory
- in a warmest winter in 60 years
IMAGINE HOW THEY CAN GROW WHEN :
-NG PRICE IS RISING 100%
- economy is stabilized
-- stock market going up thanks to global QEs ,$ trillions of injected liquidity
-- this winter will be cold ( see below )
6. iF JE INCREASED STEADY NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS IN NG BACKWARDATION
AND KEPT DIVY STEADY FOR YEARS AT $ 1.24
( NO CUSTOMER SHOULD SIGN UP WITH JE WHEN FUTURE PRICES WERE GOING LOWER- but they did IN DROVES )
IMAGINE THE FEAR OF PEOPLE WHEN NG PRICE IS IN CONTANGO
AND THEIR EAGERNESS TO MANAGE / OFFSET THEIR FUTURE COSTS BY SIGNING UP WITH JE
GEEEESUS
7 . 100% HIGHER NG PRICES = 100% JE REVENUES IN NG SEGMENT
even if volumes of NG burn per customer are lower .
But overall JE sales volumes schould grow regardless
because of 10%- 12% growth in signed-up customer numbers
and opening new markets / countries / states as we speak
8 Contango ? = JE makes money
Bacwardation? = - JE makes money
Lower use per customer = JE makes money
GEEEEEEESUS
That's the beauty of a middleman / wholesaler , who just marks up prices AT ANY LEVEL and increases customer base
9. 2012 /13 winter outlook
US Monthly Cooling and Heating Degree Day Data by region 2012-2013
from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/DDdir/ddforecast.txt
https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/Page-Sections/Energy-Prices-Supplies-and-Weather-Data/Weather-Data/Monthly-Cooling-and-Heating-Degree-Day-Data.aspx
2013 winter outlook map
https://www.farmersalmanac.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/2013USFA-Winter-Map-SMALL.jpg
Daily Data Report for September 2012 Canada IE Toromto
https://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?StationID=5097&Month=9&Day=26&Year=2012&timeframe=2
Farmers' Almanac Weather
The most trusted source for all things weather-related for nearly 200 years
. Farmers’ Almanac offers long range weather forecasts plus much more
Fans of the Almanac say its famous long-range forecast is accurate between 80 and 85 percent of the time.Articles
Get Ready for a Wet, Wild Winter in 2012!
We predict that real winter weather will return to areas from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Most eastern states – as far south as the Gulf Coast – will see snowier than normal conditions and cooler temperatures.
We are “red flagging” February 12–15 and March 20–23 for major coastal storms along the Atlantic seaboard; storms bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation.
But on the other side of the country, winter will continue its hiatus for another year. The forecast for west of the Continental Divide – the Pacific Northwest, desert Southwest, Pacific Coast – calls for mild temperatures and below-normal precipitation.
For the coming season, we’re predicting that winter will return to some – but not all – areas. We think it will be a “winter of contraries, as if Old Man Winter were cutting the country in half. The eastern half of the country will see plenty of cold and snow. The western half will experience relatively warm and dry condition. In other words, as in the political arena, the climate this winter will render us a nation divided.
10 In addition , JE is becoming more and more competitive
in electricity markets ( better value for customers) vs regulated utilities
The government estimates Ontarians will be faced with increases in home electricity costs over the next five years to pay for much needed electricity system upgrades
.The rising cost to consumers of regulated utilities applies to ALL markets due to crumbling infrastructure in need for upgrades, payable by consumer
( unless they are JE consumer LOOOL
Is there any looser here left who didn't signed up with JE ?
..
geeeeesus
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