Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

no

[jspaceman]

they aren't going to buy Crew. I GARunTit.

they don't do mergers of equals. they don't and will not take on DEBT.
they don't have ANY synergies with that land.

they will quietly assemble land in and around their pipestone play, Progress, and charlie lake. my prediciton. Or they may be targeting something new.

the kelt playbook is to SILENTLY strike via crown sales and small asset purchases.

are they going to buy Pony? no
are they going to buy Crew? no

and you can take that to the royal bank of Canada.

[Cheadle12]

well they must be doing it pretty silently, because other than the Inga sale (at much less than the market anticipated), they've been sitting on their hands for years and years. Bit like the Peyto Playbook.  "Do nothing"

[jspaceman]

maybe crew can "explore" a merger with Bonterra? ;) kel and peyto are nothing alike. if you know the history of each that would be obvious. if you want action perhaps you may  be interested in Canada's finest. Shopify.  

[Cheadle12]

Maybe, or maybe CNQ can pick up Kelt for $1.48 / share ? I don't think you're looking at the equity side of it.  There are no investors in the space, and what litle investors there are, they're all in the higher 'quality' (aka larger cap) names. It would have made & still makes total sense for Kelt, PONY, Crew and possibly even Advantage to consolidate - immediately

[filefish]

Cheadle12 is right about 1 thing for sure, there is no investor interest in the Canadian O&G space and therefore no  premiums will be paid on takeovers at this time. Equity swaps are the only viable transactions for most. On the other hand , KEL is in a very enviable postiion having up to $70mil in cash in a few weeks. That $70mil has multiple times the purchasing power in O&G

[pablo87]

At one point Paramount had $600M in the bank. They bought Apache Canada for what was deemed a song at the time and vended in Trilogy (that's another story). Now they owe almost $800M, have significant take or pay, can't finish developing 1 play let alone 2 or 3 and so far haven't been able to sell any assets. At the time it seemed like a good decision, in hindsight it was not in large

[jspaceman]

not sure how any of this relates. but perhaps you wish to clarify.

[pablo87]

Over the years the main vehicle to get out of major debt has been asset sales unfortunately those have been few and far between recently other than share swaps (btw/re) and grave dancer deals (bellatrix, BNP, PGF). Even when POU Sold Resthaven to Waterous, they only got half cash with the other half now in limbo. So if KEL turns around and buys a big asset, they could be back to square 1 just like

[Cheadle12]

Same with Crew, a bounty of incredible lands but can't seem to find buyers for them. Even their heavy oil asset should have been turfed years ago, but they refuse to 'give it away' and have a certain bottom line price on it. That's why I think a merger & consolidation makes sense.  There are too many companies out there and the juniors including Kelt are threadbare for

[pablo87]

Industry revolves around the oil sands ... and the banks...for Kelt, they still have more land than they can develop on their own so should still be selling - Pouce Coupe/Progress for sure and one of Wembley, Charlie Lake or Oak/Flatrock ideally whichever has highest breakeven cost, if not sell more if they buy something else (consolidation). Taking on more debt doesn't help, it makes the task

[Cheadle12]

I don't think you're thinking big picture. Shell, Chevron, Conoco, CNRL & TOU are all focused on the BC Montney, not Alberta. I agree that Kelt should divest wembley, charlie lake (Birchcliff) and some of the other Albert Assets. This would pay off the debt in the new entity.  From there, develop ONLY the BC Montney assets for LNG export.   This then is a company

[pablo87]

Cheadle, I don't know enough to ascertain which to keep which to sell. For sure LNG >>> oil sands.

[pablo87]

I also own some Shell - what a disaster - B vB is pretty focused on green now...not surprised if they sell the rest of oil sands complex to CNRL which means CNRL may have the upper hand for LNG supply...which could explain PONY.CNRL is also at Septimus.

[Cheadle12]

Yes and CNRL are drilling right up to Crew's lands at West Septimus.. super fishy.. Probably also looking to make a move on Crew, but they don't have fat pat ward who never bought any shares.  Crew's mgmt & board are aligned with shareholders vs. PONY. Jason "Not in Theo's league" Fleury and Pat "Fat Cat" Ward sold out PONY shareholders.