RE:Leaf pricebigwinorlose wrote: Why does LEAF not appreciate? ACB is $9. At least it should be $29 now
I believe this current arbitrage discount of almost 25% on the shares of Leaf is an indication that the market believes there is a relative risk that this takeover might not go through by the time it's all said and done. Definitely much higher than the standard 14% to 16% that we saw with the CanniMed takeover situation a few months ago.
Yes, I see absolutely no problems with the Leaf shareholders getting their required 66.67% votes to approve this takeover by Aurora. Not only in light of the high price that Aurora is willing to pay for this takeover, but also because a small handful of the shareholders who does want this takeover to go through already controls over 50% of the shares.
As a result, the success of this takeover is really going to be dependent on the shareholders of Aurora. Needless to say, many of the Aurora shareholders are definitely not happy with the stiff price being offered and the resulting massive share dilution that will take place from this takeover. They also don't seem to see any real complementary benefits to this takeover, other than more of the same that Aurora currently already has. With Cmed, at least they were gaining the patient load and access to the high dollar oil gels which they did not have.
As a result, it is quite conceivable that Aurora could find themselves in a situation where the required 50% of the shareholders they need might not vote the way they want. Especially in light of the fact that Aurora is apparently loosely held with no one shareholder having more than 3% of the outstanding shares.
So, if this proposed takeover is indeed turned down by the Aurora shareholders, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out where the share price of MedReleaf where be heading.