RE:V price estimation No one knows how the VRFB demand story will play out. There's a reason that Largo doesn't provide price guidance for V. These conservative V prices are based on a "tempered" view of upcoming VRFB demand, and they're closely aligned to V's historical average price, so I think it's best to treat V price estimates by Largo and RBC as simply estimates. If VRFB has more demand than previously expected, then prices could go up dramatically like in 2018
VRFB % of Total Vanadium Consumption:
2021: 2%
2022: 4%
2023: 8% (first three quarters)
Also, the potential JV with Stryten could significantly increase LCE sales volume despite the 50:50 split.
PGM is another potential elephant in the room based on the "significant" ore grades found.
Ilmenite is expected to ramp until reaching nameplate at 150kt. 88kt of production is expected this year according to the CC (please fact check this).
Let's not forget that the Chinese are big savers, so a wider collapse is unlikely imo. Several targeted stimulus measures including subsidies to turn vacant properties into low-income housing could quickly eliminate excess supply in the sector. Also, India is eating up a lot of Chinese steel.