RBC V price estimation Largo’s FY2023 Financial Statements: "Management estimated vanadium prices based on current pricing data and anticipated market supply and demand dynamics, and used an estimated vanadium price of $6.68 per pound for 2024, increasing to $8.50 per pound for 2027 onwards.
RBC review report: Vanadium prices remained under pressure through early-2024, primarily due to a challenging macro environment and weak steel-related demand. European V2O5 prices at ~$5.50/lb in Q1/24 are down from ~$8/lb average through 2023, and we expect prices to remain in the $5.50-6/lb range through 2024. We have lowered our long-term V2O5 price assumption to $8/lb, from $9.50/lb, which is more in-line with the historical average and taking into account tempered views on the impact from vanadium redox flow battery adoption.
Can we really say that Management’s V prices estimation is conservative when compared to RBC’s analysis?
Perhaps Andrew Wong’s V price estimation was conservative because his analysis was also in the context relating to impairment tests. Lol !
Since its inception, either after commercial independence or during the Glencore era when VRFB was not even in anybody's mind in the market, Largo has never provided guidance for Vanadium prices. However since the beginning, short /mid/long term estimation of V2O5 prices have always been given in all economic studies and in all reviews by analysts in order to evaluate the worth of the company. The fact that Largo does not provide guidance for Vanadium prices has nothing to do with VRFB.