RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:COS and MEG takeovers2015ideaman wrote: 2015ideaman wrote: wallop13 wrote: 2015ideaman wrote: I think 15 to $16 is a touch low...where can you find a producing 83,000 b/d oil company with approvals and ready to go for another 130,000 b/d....once oil returns to a reasonable fair price, meg will be a low cost producer and a excellent money maker...I guess the alternative is to go through all the processes and construction time with returns 5 years down the road.......just my 2 cents...I think meg was way oversold and came back to where it is now based on low cost and producing 83,000 b/d. A fair offer in my mind is $18 to $20 as you are buying an immediately profitable oil business that has expansion approved....cheers....from ideaman...
quote=shambano1]I guess it depends on what happens with the pipeline. I'm sure any acquirers of Meg will want to keep the pipeline. Now Meg has had lots if interest in their pipeline and infrastructure assets but maybe they are shopping the whole company as well just to see the range of prices and in case they get an unwanted hostile and that way they would be prepared This is a great management team, so I think they will look at all avenues before making s decision on selling pipelines. But I agree, 20 seems a very high premium to pay during low oil prices. I'd be happy with 15-16. Dyodd
It's good to have lofty aspirations, but you need to use the COS offer as a bar. What do you value the reserves at? I think 1.1 billion is not bad. You also need to consider that COS has an additional 20,000 a day production. That's min 0.5 billion value. That's a 1.6 billion premium over the COS offer at $18 per share for MEG. I like MEG because I like crude long term, but offers that come now will reflect the current market.
I have a question...if meg does not need to sell now at the current market, ( after access sale ) then let's assume they don't sell... until maybe oil prices are fair and that day is not that far off. What would you value meg at that point with being a low cost producer that is fairly profitable. Or at that point is no one interested in buying but I think a profitable comapny would always have buyer interest...just a thought...
1.1 billion for reserves puts that portion at under $9 /b of potential...I think meg would not want to sell reserves that low....meg is a different animal as it has the production with 250,000 b/d up for grabs....this would be a steal at under $18... if Suncor is expecting to expand only with opportunistic prices, there takeovers may be very limited with few good size operations available for sale...it seems to me a small operators buyout is not of interest to SU....my 2 cents
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I think it would be $20 plus at $60 WTI. Selling at $41 WTI is really crazy unless you can re-invest in another company of equal potential. But some people might think it's great if they bought at $8. I'm not 100% sure about asset value these days, my feeling is that resources are less valuable because it's cheaper to acquire producing assets. I was going off what one could pick ATH up for, but the assets are different, so who knows.