Post by
wallopnd on Feb 25, 2021 12:44pm
Mr Market Got It Wrong
I just listened to the conference call and had a look at the investor deck. I was really happy with the amount of disclosure this quarter. Some of the notable items: - London poultry facilities structure is complete, they're commencing wiring and mechanical now. Expected completion is mid 2022. - EBITDA margin will grow to 14%+ in 2022 and 16%+ in 2023. - Sales expected to increase mid to high single digits this year. - PBP sales effected by the entry of impossible meat. They will continue to take a loss on this segment for some time while they build their brands and focus on 30% sales growth. Expect volatility for several years. I think they'd like investors to view this as a post 2023 story and not get fixated on the QtoQ. If we assume a total of 15% non-plant meat growth over the next 3 years, that would bring us to 584 million EBITDA. Add the 3.5% margin expansion and you get 757 million in annual EBITDA from the meat business. The company appears set for huge EBITDA growth over the next 3 years, with or without help from the plant protein business. But I personally still like the plant business for the long term, I think it'll keep growing in the background and will be a future driver of EBITDA growth post 2023. The whole company has fantastic long term prospects in my opinion.