RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:I don't think any of the long term holders are worriedI consider myself pretty neutral. I think there is upside, but $4 or $5 is not going to happen with the cashflow this company will generate for the next few years. Perhaps down the road further if everything comes together.
A few things about the near term sp action come to my mind. First is the chart, which is saying that the market thinks this will go down. I commented on this yesterday but there is no resistance from here down to the low 80s, so holding now is risky by some perspectives, irrespective of the company prospects. This has been the case as it consolidated from the recent high and broke resistance at the 50 dma. Today the 200 dma broke again. Long term holders don't care (or claim not to, but no one likes to see the sp go down), but most of the market trades on monthly or finer time scales and cares alot about this pattern. The action today speaks to this scenario in my view. I sold a lot of my position when it started to flirt with $1 and more yesterday when it cut through the 200 dma initially (they painted the tape above for the close...). A rational target price is now the low 80s where there is thick resistance. The chart is clear. I doubt I am alone with this thinking and the volume generated by this kind of positioning would be eough to explain much of the recent action (and indeed, it becomes self-fulfilling in a rather circular way).
The other technical aspect is the macro- we don't know what this market peak might bring, but if it is a big bull trap (which I think it is, with earnings waning), companies like MIN are even risker than normal. Plus there is easy money in the main indexes these days. Copper is not giving a convincing story about the future- it can't get past a major resistance at $3. The narrative about long term deficits is just that, a narrative. The spot price does not buy it and I respect that.
There are technical matters with the project that also weigh here and constitute risk. The most obvious is that the hydrogeological model depends on analytical assumptions about the effective permeability of the ore body constructed from drill core. This is manifest as the "sweep efficiency", but we have not seen pilot (field) scale testing of this ore body like they are doing at Florence. This is a risk that won't be resolved until we have some actual field performance data later this year. There are some other technical issues that will require field testing. I gut tells me these are not deal breakers, but no one knows, until we know. Period.
If you want to sell, sell. There are good reasons to do so, technically. The broader market is going up on modest volume and earnings. I suspect the smart money is exiting a lot of positions. I'm betting that I will get my MIN shares again at a lower price. I'm not sure enough to sell my entire position, but enough to value cash over shares with about 2/3 of my position.
We'll see.