Excelsior Mining Corp T.MIN

Excelsior Financial Projections at $4.05/lb Cu

[PhotonicsGuy]

It's been a while since I've posted any projections, but some folks have been asking for them. I've taken some liberties on the charts below.

FYI:  I will be talking with Stephen Twyerould, CEO, today regarding operational challenges raised in the Crux article.  He will - of course - not disclose any non-public information, but will hopefully place the ramp-up process in context.  I will share notes from my conversation with him in a later post.

Here are the assumptions:

1. Copper Price:  Copper pricing is at $4.05/lb.
2. Year 0 Production Levels: I've computed an estimate for Yr2021 production levels based on a linear progression from a starting point of 0 in Dec2020 to the equivalent of 25MLb/year in Dec2021. I've shown this computation in the first chart below. Unsurprisingly, that effectively comes out to an annual total for 2021 of 13.5MLb/yr, which is roughly half of the 25MLb/year nameplate capacity for Stage 1.
3. Stage 3 moved forward 3 years: With copper pricing currently at 5 year highs, I think it is safe to assume that Excelsior management will pursue financing for Stage 3 earlier and skip Stage 2 entirely. The resulting Stage 3 production levels will be attained in the fifth year (Year4). I've attempted to reflect this in the Capex as well as cash flows. No guarantees my assumptions will match reality.
4. Stage 3 Debt/Equity Financing: The Capex for Stage 3 is assumed to be met by a 60% Debt / 30% Cash-Flow / 10% Equity financing. Note: Income from Warrants and Options is used to offset capex requirements for Stage 3 expansion.  Again, no guarantees the actual financing will be anywhere close to these assumptions.
5. Discount Rate at 5%: Assuming the kinks are worked out in the ISR process, the cash-flows from the project will be very good.  Excelsior will be among the lowest cost producers worldwide.  for this reason, the Discount Rate is shown at 5% per annum, instead of the 7.5% used in the FS.  Cash flow from a single year of 125MLb/yr operation will be sufficient to cover the Stage 3 Capex expansion.

PG

[Streicher]

Thank you Photo. Your work on this over the last few years is  much appreciated. THe next tranche of copper sales will be a useful indicator of how the production ramp-up is progessing. 

[metalhead666]

You don't even know for sure if there is another load of copper...the company will not discuss this either. None of you know anything about what's actually going on and that includes me.  For all you know there may be nothing getting done. FACT...the company is silent on everything.

[rexrex]

Thank you Metalhead, all your points have been duly noted. As you are now considered a permanent member albeit bearish member of this forum we all note your comments which has been made clear to us many times over. Clearly you have issues with management. I get it, We get it, management is mum. Maybe they will update us in due course, perhaps after the PP is closed. For now I am comfortable with

[Copper3]

Nice to see high volume.

[metalhead666]

1 million $ worth...means absolutely NOTHING

[metalhead666]

You don't get it either. I am neither bullish or bearish I am agnostic because I don't know the extent of the problems and neither do you and the company will not disclose what's really going on.  Greenstone and the like invested many years ago based on a feasibility study and hope....they say nothing about these issues and if they are fatal or not. The FACT is....none of you know

[dollpartz]

I think you mean neutral not agnostic .. I don't understand why you're so worked up over it .. I own it and I hardly feel anything. You don't own it and you are about to have a stroke. And JJ .. If I was JJ and saw how you ran to the boards with the info to bash the company 50x a day I'd never talk to you again .. Again I exaggerated for effect ... just relax

[rexrex]

Excellent work. Thank you.! It's great to have an analyst on the forum who is able to give us a factual representation of the project.

[metalhead666]

It's worthless if the problems with the wells are a fatal flaw. 

[metalhead666]

All complete gibberish and waste of time if the project fails.  Plug any numbers you want into any model you want but if there are issues with the wells that cannot be overcome this company is a zero. FACT...there are problems..FACT..the company will tell you nothing. FACT....if the problems can't be fixed this whole project is a bust.

[CuBanana]

Hi Metalhead666, We are currently in the 'ramp up phase', and Excelsior will take 1 year to reach nameplate production. Any technical issues will be dealt with during this year. The recent note from our CEO (see below) highlights optimism!! Maybe you haven't read the company news release at the end of January (Thursday Jan 28th 2021), I'll post it again below for you to read

[metalhead666]

LOL...couldn't care less about what anyone "Hopes" will happen....go tell me why half the wells are NOT FUNCTIONING!!   Go address the CRUX issues point by point scientifically.  I can read propaganda press releases but I don' invest on hopes and wishes....Now go find out WHY HALF THE WELLS ARE NOT WORKING! 

[Unicorn9000]

  someone did addressed the Crux issues  here: https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/getting-to-the-crux-of-the-matter  

[metalhead666]

NO...there is NO explanation as to why half the wells are NON FUNCTIONING. Go call them and see if you can find out...go ahead...try and get an explanation...I challenge you or anyone on this board to get a straight answer.

[dollpartz]

Then again, half are functioning .. (invites the comparison to glass half full, glass half empty but I won't make it outside of parentheses) .. relax its Friday

[metalhead666]

If only half the wells function the company will go bankrupt.  Have a nice weekend.

[Buckfinder]

Thanks for this analysis! Only 2 working days left for you - after the end of the PP you will move on to the next stock under a different name. glta 

[dollpartz]

Thx you too

[Streicher]

The man just doesn't understand how a in-situ copper SX plant is ramped up - and it's not the job of the Min management to educate him. Clue- you don't open up everything at full throttle.  

[metalhead666]

Unreal...it has nothing to do with the pace of things!  It has to do with the GEOLOGY and wells NOT WORKING! Hello?  CO2 blockages because of carbonate rock and other issues they refuse to discuss...what don't you get?

[CuBanana]

Metal, Check out the post earlier from 'PhotonicsGuy' @ 12.22pm.  Quote from phonics - "FYI:  I will be talking with Stephen Twyerould, CEO, today regarding operational challenges raised in the Crux article.  He will - of course - not disclose any non-public information, but will hopefully place the ramp-up process in context.  I will share notes from my

[metalhead666]

Yes I have read it.  You all just refuse to understand and I can't help you anymore....There are non functioning wells...you, him, Crux, everyone CANNOT offer an explanation and the company won't comment....there has been NOTHING posted anywhere addressing this problem...you all just dismiss it out of hand as if it's no big deal. You are wrong. It is a big deal. If there is a

[giovinco]

There is no press release from the company stating that half the wells are not functioning. Are you an insider of the company? Not sure why Excelsior management is not reporting you to stockhouse for either leaking information not made public or making false claims.

[metalhead666]

OMG...you people are hopelessly stupid.  I spent an hour with them...I asked about what's happening...I was TOLD that 1/3d of the entire wellfield is being supplied with acid solution and half the wells are NOT working!  I was TOLD that one problem is CO2 in the lines but they WOULD NOT disclose why the other wells are NOT functioning.  Wake up! 

[Ajax2019]

I think you are the stupid one. Absolutely there is risk, as somebody pointed out previously. But you do know that this is a junior miner, right? We are all aware that we can lose money here. So big deal. I knew you were full of s... when you started babbling about how insanely great this project was and how you would "meet" mgt on our behalf to ask questions.  Anyways we all

[fishmillion]

Ajax i concur.... thats another box in the profile.... " i meet with management all the time bs...the big box is when you criticize or correct him he goes all squirrely and gets very bitter.... the best antidote is the ignore button....

[comet52]

Thanks Photo, interesting as always.   Have to ask though, what would you project as a takeout price since I often hear that is the endgame here?  I doubt we are ever going to be holding $10/share Excelsior stock.

[Trouger]

Fine, looking forward to reading your notes about the conversation with Steve! Cheers