Methanex Corp T.MX

Alternate Symbol(s): MEOH

Chemicals Basic Materials

Methanex Corporation is a Canada-based producer and supplier of methanol to international markets. The Company supplies methanol to international markets in North America, Asia Pacific, Europe, and South America. Its operations consist of the production and sale of methanol, a commodity chemical. It operates production sites in Canada, Chile, Egypt, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago and the United States. It has three plants in New Zealand, Motunui 1, Motunui 2 and Waitara Valley. Its two plants in Geismar serve customers in methanol markets. It has two plants in Trinidad, Titan and Atlas that supplies methanol to various methanol markets. Its Chile production site supplies methanol to customers in South America and Asia Pacific, having two plants in Chile, Chile I and Chile IV. Its Egypt plant is located on the Mediterranean Sea and primarily supply methanol to the domestic and European market. Its plant in Medicine Hat, Alberta, supplies methanol to customers in North America.

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Methanex Corp

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Post by retiredcfon Apr 29, 2021 8:44am

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Post# 33089580

TD

This is a flash report so there is potential for them to raise their current US$50 target. GLTA

Methanex Corp.

(MEOH-Q, MX-T) US$40.95 | C$50.35

Q1/21 a Slight Beat; Highest Quarterly EBITDA Since Q3/18 Event

Methanex reported Q1/21 adjusted EBITDA of $242mm, modestly above the consensus estimate of $236mm and in line with our forecast of $243mm. The conference call is at 11:00 a.m. ET. Dial-in: 1-800-806-5484 (passcode 9396607).

Impact: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE

Q1/21 Results: Adjusted EBITDA of $242mm represents the company's highest quarterly EBITDA since Q3/18 and was up $106mm vs. Q4/20 adjusted EBITDA of $136mm. The sequential increase was largely due to the increase in the company's average realized methanol price and pricing remains strong to-date in Q2/21.
Methanol Prices: Methanol demand has continued to recover, and Methanex anticipates that it will return to pre-pandemic levels later in 2021, but methanol pricing remains driven by ongoing industry supply challenges, particularly in the Atlantic Basin. Methanex's May posted contract price in North America increased by $23/tonne to $542/tonne, a price level not seen since mid-2014, and the posted contract price in Europe increased to €410/tonne in Q2/21 vs. €390/tonne in Q1/21, while the May posted contract price in Asia was stable at $430/tonne. Industry forecaster Argus still expects methanol prices to moderate based on improving methanol supply and the start-up of a new U.S. plant, as well as the impact of softer olefin/olefin derivative pricing on MTO demand; however, the timing of that moderation has likely been pushed out to early-Q3/21, and we are mindful that deferred maintenance during COVID-19 may aggravate the usual industry supply volatility.
Geismar 3: Methanex has invested $385mm of the $1.3-$1.4bln expected capital cost of Geismar 3 and anticipates spending a further $60mm during the remaining care-and-maintenance period (Q2/21 and Q3/21). We anticipate that Methanex will be prudent about restarting the Geismar 3 project but expect that Geismar 3 will take precedence over share buybacks and/or the restoration of a more meaningful dividend. We also see the Street as more likely to be supportive of Geismar 3 against the current macro backdrop, particularly if Methanex can bring in a partner, which the current macro backdrop may also be more conducive to